Trading strategy for ETH/USD on 1 hour ( data as of May 4, 2025 )

*Current price: $1,847.66 | MA5/EMA5: ~$1,842 | Confirmed "Golden Cross" MACD*

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▎Main trading scenarios and levels

▎1. Purchase on the pullback to EMA30

• Entry conditions:

• Price correction into the zone $1,836–$1,839 (crossing of EMA30 and EMA10).

• Confirmation: a decrease in volume on the MACD histogram (1H) or RSI < 40.

• Goals:

• Bounce to $1,847–$1,855 (resistance zone).

• On breakout — target $1,872 ( weekly pressure level ).

• Stop-loss:

• Fixed below $1,830 (risk ≤ 2% of the deposit).

▎2. Purchase on breakout of resistance

• Entry conditions:

• Consolidation above $1,850 with the closing candle (1H) and volume >5,000,000 USDT.

• Goals:

• Short-term growth to $1,865–$1,880 ( Fibonacci level ).

• Partial profit-taking upon reaching targets.

• Stop-loss:

• Dynamic below $1,842 (EMA5).

▎3. Selling in the Overbought Zone

• Entry conditions:

• Retracement to $1,855–$1,865 + resistance signals (KDJ >80, long upper shadows, negative MACD).

• Goals:

• Correction to $1,842–$1,847 (EMA5/EMA10).

• If broken — target $1,830 (EMA60 on the daily chart).

• Stop-loss:

• Above $1,870 ( protection against false breakout).

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▎Key Indicators and Risk Management

• MACD:

• Histogram: +1.44 | DIF (1.97) > DEA (0.53) — confirmation of the "golden cross".

• Attention: Divergence risk during growth.

• KDJ:

• J-value: 100.31 ( overbought ) — correction possible.

• Correlation with BTC:

• Holding BTC above $85,000 is support for ETH.

• The drop of BTC below $84,000 poses a risk of ETH falling to $1,830.

• Option levels:

• Maximum pain: $1,840. A drop below $1,830 could trigger liquidations of $250M+.

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▎Positioning Rules

• Position size: ≤40% of capital | Leverage ≤2x ( reduce during high volatility ).

• Stop-loss:

• Required when closing below $1,830 or strengthening negative MACD.

• Additional inputs:

• When sharply falling below $1,820 (EMA60) — use 15% of capital for averaging.

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▎Final forecast

ETH is trading in the range of $1,836–$1,855. Recommended:

• Buying on dips with low volumes.

• Selling at resistance $1,855 considering overbought conditions.

• Monitoring MACD and BTC are key triggers for correction.

Important: Maintain discipline, avoid impulsive decisions in overheated market zones.

*Adapt the strategy to current conditions, using stop-loss as the main capital protection tool.*

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