a16z顾问：预测市场中仅1.3%政治合约具备流动性，建议引入AI代理提供流动性

Primitive Ventures：预测市场的“东西方分化”，我们为何下注 Opinion Labs？

文章探讨了预测市场的演变，特别是Opinion Labs如何通过AI技术在流动性及本地化信念交易上实现突破。东西方市场在关注点和参与方式上存在显著差异，东方更注重内容与娱乐，而西方则向金融化发展。最终，预测市场2.0形成了文化驱动的多样化演化方向。

$1.2M in Profits Tied to Insider-Linked Addresses in ZachXBT Market Bet

_Eight insider-linked wallets captured $1.2M in profits, mostly from single-market bets placed before odds shifted._ On-chain data has intensified scrutiny around a Polymarket event linked to a ZachXBT insider probe. Trading records show heavy profit concentration among a small cluster of wallet

Prediction Markets Are Challenging Traditional Polling

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi offer a financial-based alternative to traditional polling, enhancing predictive accuracy by requiring participants to invest real money. Despite criticisms regarding participant demographics and potential manipulation, they are gaining traction among investors and strategists, potentially reshaping forecasting methods.

ZachXBT 揭露 Axiom 内幕交易，Polymarket 内部人士提前获利超 120 万美元

Polymarket 平台曝出内部人士利用非公开信息获利事件，涉及8个地址获利超120万美元，损害普通投资者利益。数据显示，52个普通地址损失超160万美元，事件引发对去中心化金融透明度与内幕交易的讨论，可能促使监管关注合规性问题。

Polymarket Trader Bets $150K on U.S. Alien Confirmation Before 2027

Gate News bot message, Polymarket trader SCssss returned after over a year of silence and placed a $150K bet on the U.S. confirming the existence of aliens before 2027, at odds of only 16.8%. One year ago, the same trader bet on Harris winning the U.S. election.

预测市场的23大缺陷

加密 KOL Alexander Lin 指出预测市场存在23条缺陷，包括资本效率低、流动性不足、缺乏天然对冲者、市场操纵风险等。这些问题使得预测市场难以成为主流金融工具，与传统金融机构的有效性和流动性形成对比。