The RSI and MACD on the daily gold chart have already shown obvious divergence, which often indicates that a correction is imminent. Once gold truly starts to decline, we will see a collective rally in the cryptocurrency market—assets like BTC and ETH, which are considered risk assets, usually strengthen accordingly. The logic behind this is quite simple: capital is like flowing water, always moving from high-risk, high-premium areas to relatively undervalued and more attractive assets. When traditional stable assets lose their appeal, those risk assets with prices still in the trough and relatively safe fundamentals become new targets. According to historical patterns, after the signal of a 3.5% decline on the daily gold chart appears, it typically takes about 100 days for crypto assets to reach a stage high. This time window roughly corresponds to the end of Q1, which should see a small climax. However, from a full-year perspective, I believe the end of Q1 is not the peak price of 2026; the true peak is likely to occur at the end of Q3.

Recently, there has been widespread speculation about interest rate cuts in the market, but do you know? A top global asset management firm recently poured cold water on that idea—before 2026, the Federal Reserve will not be making large-scale monetary easing. Does that sound harsh? This is exactly the most surreal part of the current situation. On one side, retail investors and hot money are celebrating the "era of rate cuts," while on the other side, the institutions managing the largest funds worldwide are quietly calling a halt. This is not market rumor; it’s an obvious split in expectations. Why is this happening? Simply put, inflation has not truly been subdued. As long as inflation still has some warmth, the Fed’s hands are tightly bound. If the data doesn’t look good, don’t expect them to ease up. What does this mean for us? First and most directly—don’t be fooled by short-term market movements. The current rebound may have already over-anticipated rate cuts. If the data comes in below expectations again, the market could turn around at any moment. Price swings in coins like ETH, ZEC, DOGE could become even more intense. Second, cash remains the most solid asset. Instead of going all-in, it’s better to keep some bullets in hand. The high-interest-rate environment might last much longer than everyone thinks. Holding cash or short-term bonds can provide stable returns and help you sleep peacefully. Most importantly, every economic data point has become a landmine. Next month’s inflation report, employment figures, CPI data—any of these could trigger a market explosion. Because the current Fed is data-driven, with no preset stance, it’s all about how reality unfolds. This reflects a deeper change. The rules of the game after the pandemic have been completely altered. We can’t expect a big wave of rate cuts all at once; instead, we should be prepared for interest rates to oscillate at relatively high levels. Inflation is stubborn, and the Fed dares not easily surrender. The market must get used to this new normal. Smart investors are now adjusting their strategies. It’s not about aggressive all-in moves or hiding in fear, but about finding opportunities amid volatility and maintaining rationality amid disagreements. When red signals appear, stay calm; when green signals appear, don’t be greedy. Ultimately, the market always swings between two emotional extremes, but real money always flows to those who see the situation clearly in advance. In this round, what is your choice?

Recently, while monitoring on-chain data, some interesting phenomena were discovered. The top short seller who made a fortune by shorting altcoins has recently been aggressively closing positions on ASTER. With the price already dropping to 0.6820, tonight's long-short showdown may soon reveal the outcome. What you most want to know now is: Will ASTER continue to bottom out tonight at 0.75 or even 0.65? Or can it make a desperate comeback to rebound to 0.838? Should you cut your holdings? Let's analyze this step by step. **The silence of the whale speaks louder than words** On-chain monitoring shows that this top short seller has completely closed positions in 8 different tokens, with an unrealized profit of $83.14 million. Meanwhile, another seasoned whale in the BTC ecosystem, who is long ETH, is currently at an unrealized loss of $36.84 million, with funding rates alone losing $2.49 million. This is no coincidence. Players capable of mobilizing hundreds of millions of dollars possess information and analytical skills far beyond retail investors. When such forces collectively retreat or shift positions, the signals behind them are definitely worth deep consideration. **The K-line chart is in front of your eyes** The 4-hour chart for ASTER clearly indicates the signal. The MACD's white and yellow lines are firmly below the zero axis, showing a strong bearish momentum. The price has been gradually declining from its high point and is currently testing around 0.6820.