3月4日消息，去中心化预测平台Polymarket近日紧急下架一个极具争议的预测市场，该市场允许用户押注“核武器何时引爆”。该合约在社交媒体引发大量批评后被撤下，此前其累计交易额已超过83.8万美元，成为近期最具争议的加密预测市场事件之一。
该预测市场设置了多个时间节点，包括2026年3月31日、6月30日以及2027年前是否会发生核武器爆炸事件。平台此前显示，市场参与者一度将今年发生核爆的概率定价为22%。随着争议不断扩大，该市场最终被平台移除。
预测市场分析师Dustin Gouker公开表示，允许用户对核武器使用进行投机并不合理。他指出，即使预测市场理论上可以提供概率信息，但围绕战争与大规模毁灭性武器进行交易，很容易带来道德和监管问题。同时，如果交易量不足，也可能形成误导性信号。
围绕Polymarket的争议并不止于该市场。近期有调查显示，在美国与以色列对伊朗发动军事行动前数小时，超过150个账户在平台上集中下注，押注第二天将发生军事打击。这些交易最终总额达到约85.5万美元，并且成功预测了事件发生时间。
其中一名网名为“Magamyman”的交易员通过押注该冲突以及伊朗最高领袖Ali Khamenei的命运，累计获利超过55.3万美元。区块链分析公司Bubblemaps进一步指出，在冲突爆发前几个小时，至少六个新注册账户通过相关市场获利约120万美元，这些账户的交易行为被怀疑与内幕信息有关。
类似争议此前已经多次出现。今年1月，一名匿名交易员在委内瑞拉总统Nicolas Maduro被捕前精准下注，从相关预测市场中获得超过40万美元收益。另一起事件则涉及以色列安全机构调查两名人员，他们被指利用机密军事信息在伊朗与以色列持续12天的冲突期间进行押注。
随着争议持续扩大，美国监管机构也开始关注预测市场的潜在风险。美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）近期已向总统预算办公室提交预先规则制定通知，计划在正式监管框架出台前征询行业意见。
CFTC主席Michael Selig表示，预测市场监管将成为其任期内的重要任务之一，目标是在美国50个州建立统一的联邦监管标准。分析人士认为，如果战争、暗杀或核武器相关预测市场继续出现，预测市场行业的合规化进程可能面临更大阻力。
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