2月13日消息，以色列 当局逮捕两名涉嫌利用机密信息在Polymarket 上进行军事行动相关交易的人士，包括一名预备役军人和一名平民。以色列国防部、国内安全局辛贝特（Shin Bet）及警方联合声明称，两人涉嫌通过获取机密信息进行投注，检察官以安全犯罪、受贿及妨碍司法公正提起刑事诉讼。
据了解，该预备役军人受雇于辛贝特，而被捕事件再次凸显预测市场潜在的安全风险。今年早些时候，Polymarket 上已有多起内幕交易案例引发关注，例如一名用户在委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗被美军抓获前数小时押注成功，盈利约 40 万美元。
以色列国家通讯社报道，一名名为“ricosuave666”的账户在2025年6月针对以色列对伊朗的军事行动进行了多次投注，盈利超过 15.23 万美元，其中“以色列周五前对伊朗采取军事行动”的投注盈利超过 12.87 万美元。目前尚不清楚被捕者是否与该账户相关。
以色列国防部强调，基于机密信息进行的赌博对以色列国防军行动和国家安全构成实质威胁，军方及安全部门将持续追查此类行为。世界各地立法者也对预测市场可能被滥用表示担忧，认为其会破坏市场诚信，削弱公众信任。
被捕军人的律师向彭博社表示，起诉书存在缺陷，并指出危害国家安全的指控已被撤销。尽管如此，此次事件仍警示了加密预测市场在敏感信息泄露与交易行为间潜在的安全隐患，或将引发监管和法律层面的进一步关注。
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