Macroeconomics

Today, the cryptocurrency market faces important option expiration and PCE inflation data release, with cautious market sentiment. Bitcoin and Ethereum options will expire, with traders expecting Bitcoin to maintain high-level oscillation. Ethereum support is being watched at the $2,100 range. U.S. macroeconomic policy and energy market volatility are similarly affecting market sentiment.

As Middle East tensions escalate, researchers point out that Bitcoin's price drivers are shifting from traditional economic indicators toward geopolitical risks. Recently, Bitcoin has demonstrated strong performance among safe-haven assets, showing that investors are reassessing its role, with institutional capital continuing to flow in, reflecting recognition of Bitcoin as a holdable asset.

The U.S. will release its January PCE price index tonight, with the year-over-year increase expected at 2.9% and the month-over-month increase at 0.3%. Core PCE is expected to accelerate to 3.1%. The divergence between CPI and PCE data stems from different weighting allocations for various items, with economists predicting that core PCE goods prices will rise significantly.

The bubble threat “Stupid” macro data Legendary investor Stanley Druckenmiller predicted that crypto could eventually supplant the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency Druckenmiller is doubtful about the greenback’s ability to maintain its much-coveted status 50 years from now "I do

The U.S. government recently revealed that the initial six days of the U.S.-Iran conflict cost $11.3 billion, equivalent to approximately 48.9% of its Bitcoin holdings' market value. Converting this expenditure into Bitcoin amounts to approximately 160,443 BTC, and at this rate of spending, existing Bitcoin reserves could only support approximately 12.3 days of expenses. The White House emphasized that Bitcoin reserves must not be sold, and pointed out that large-scale spending could trigger inflation, further increasing demand for Bitcoin.

Goldman Sachs expects the average price of Brent crude oil to exceed $100 per barrel in March, $85 per barrel in April, and to fall back to $70 per barrel by the end of the year. If the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted for two months, prices in the fourth quarter are expected to rise to $93 per barrel.

Robert Kiyosaki is warning of a potentially historic stock market crash around 2026, which he attributes to structural issues that have persisted since the 2008 financial crisis. His recommended hedge assets include gold, silver, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and oil to counter market volatility. Despite his mixed track record of predictions, his warnings have sparked widespread concern about financial stability.

On March 13th, volatility in the U.S. Treasury market reached a nine-month high, with the ICE BofA MOVE index climbing. Escalating Iran tensions heightened market inflation concerns, rising oil prices reduced the appeal of Treasuries, 30-year Treasury yields increased, and traders reduced bets on rate cuts in 2026. Investors need to consider the uncertainty brought about by stagflation.

Bitcoin has recently rebounded strongly to $71,480, the U.S. CFTC released market manipulation risk guidance and is seeking public comments, and the SEC chair called for establishing an innovation exemption mechanism for security tokenization. Additionally, JPMorgan Chase faces a class action lawsuit, crypto market volatility and investor sentiment are gradually stabilizing, with expectations for potentially positive developments ahead.

2026-03-12 15:15 to 2026-03-12 15:30 (UTC), BTC recorded a +k-line return of 0.79%, with price fluctuating between 69702.5 and 70428.9 USDT, reaching an amplitude of 1.04%. Trading activity was robust during this time window, with noticeably elevated market attention and intensified short-term volatility. The primary driver of this price movement was on-chain large fund flows and increased institutional participation. During the same period, multiple large transfers exceeding 1,000 BTC flowed into exchange cold wallets, with whale addresses concentrating their buying activities. [Text appears to be incomplete]

Gate News reports that on March 12, the Trump administration plans to suspend the Jones Act (a shipping regulation that restricts cargo transportation between U.S. ports to American vessels) to moderate oil prices. The restrictions under this act have resulted in higher domestic oil transportation costs in the United States, and suspending the act could help lower oil prices.

Gate News reports that on March 12, U.S. Energy Secretary Wright stated that the United States currently holds 4.15 billion barrels of oil reserves. Wright said that U.S. President Trump is concerned about rising energy prices in the short term, and the release of strategic petroleum reserves is partly intended to ensure near-term oil supply in the Asia region.

Citibank raised its quarterly price forecast for Brent crude oil, projecting $75/barrel for Q1, $78/barrel for Q2, and $68/barrel for Q3. Due to geopolitical risks, oil prices could reach $80-100/barrel in the short term. Analysts believe escalating conflicts could cause turmoil in the oil market.

Robert Kiyosaki warned on X platform that 2026 will see the biggest stock market crash in history, and accused BlackRock of being a "Ponzi scheme." He advised investors to purchase Bitcoin, Ethereum, and tangible assets like gold, even suggesting skipping meals to buy silver if lacking funds. He emphasized the importance of taking action and criticized current societal trends.

The Bank of Canada completed the "Project Samara" trial, successfully issuing 100 million CAD in tokenized government bonds, becoming the first case of bonds using distributed ledger technology. Participating institutions include multiple banks, aiming to improve financial market efficiency. The trial demonstrated that blockchain can shorten settlement times but requires overcoming regulatory challenges and exploring integration with existing systems. Financial institutions worldwide are increasingly concerned about tokenized assets, and Canada is also establishing a corresponding regulatory framework.

Gate News reports that on March 12, the U.S. Department of Labor released data showing that initial jobless claims for the week ending March 7 were 213,000, lower than market expectations of 215,000. Additionally, the previous value was revised from 213,000 to 214,000.

Gate News reported that on March 12, U.S. Energy Secretary Wright stated today that oil prices are unlikely to rise to $200 per barrel.

U.S. Energy Secretary Wright stated that strategic petroleum reserves will be released in the short term through an exchange mechanism, with 172 million barrels already released and 200 million barrels to be recovered. He pointed out that oil supply in the Western Hemisphere is normal, while tensions exist in the Asia-Pacific region, and emphasized that actions regarding Iran will take weeks rather than months, with naval escort measures to be deployed as soon as possible.

Due to the rise of stablecoins, traditional banks face medium-term risks of deposit outflows. Jefferies predicts that banks could lose 3% to 5% of core deposits within the next five years, which would impact bank profitability. Stablecoins have expanded into payments and corporate treasury management, with the market expected to grow significantly. Traditional financial institutions are actively deploying stablecoins to address these challenges, particularly as banks that rely on retail deposits will face greater risks.

Gate News, on March 12, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending March 7 at 20:30 Beijing time tonight, which may trigger market volatility.