Federal Reserve dot plot interpretation: Median unchanged for 2025 but dovish forces weaken.

On March 20, the median dot plot of the Federal Reserve in March showed that the Fed expects to cut interest rates twice in 2025 by 25 basis points each time, and is expected to cut interest rates twice in 2026 by 25 basis points each time, which is consistent with expectations in December. However, in 2025, the number of officials who support no or less interest rate cuts will increase, and the number of officials who support no interest rate cut will increase from one to four, the number of officials who support one rate cut will increase from three to four, the number of officials who support two interest rate cuts will be reduced from 10 to nine, and the number of officials who will support three interest rate cuts will be reduced from three to two.