Golden Ten Arrangement: Investment banks look ahead to the Central Bank of Japan's Interest Rate decision, beware of unexpected rate hikes

Status quo: 1. BNP Paribas: It is expected to keep the Interest Rate unchanged, but there may be a rate hike at the meeting on January 24, 2025. 2. ING: It is expected to keep the Interest Rate unchanged, but the recent strengthening of the USD/JPY exchange rate may prompt the Japanese Central Bank to make a decision to raise rates. 3. Goldman Sachs: It is expected to keep the Interest Rate unchanged and continues to anticipate a rate hike in January 2025, pending the results of the 'spring wage negotiations.' 4. Allianz Investment: It is expected to keep the Interest Rate unchanged and may provide some guidance on the next steps, but no commitment will be made regarding future actions. 5. Citibank: It is expected to keep the Interest Rate unchanged and anticipates a rate hike in January 2025, while the Japanese Central Bank needs to assess wage negotiations and US tariffs. Raising the Interest Rate: 1. OCBC Bank: It is expected to raise the Interest Rate by 15 basis points. By the end of 2025, the Japanese Central Bank's target Interest Rate is expected to increase from the current 0.25% to 0.85%. 2. HSBC: It is expected to adjust the Interest Rate range. Recent hawkish comments from officials reflect both forex fluctuation and improved economic data. 3. JPMorgan Chase: It is expected to raise the Interest Rate by 25 basis points. The balance of recent data meets the conditions for a rate hike, and fourth-quarter sentiment surveys and other data have sent positive signals. 4. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group: It is expected to raise the Interest Rate by 25 basis points. If not in December, it will raise rates in January next year, followed by two more hikes to reach an Interest Rate level of 1%. 5. Nomura Securities: It is expected to raise the Interest Rate by 25 basis points, mainly due to the alignment of economic fundamentals and price trends, and the spiral cycle of wages and prices is beginning to form.