Analyst: Fed dot plot forecasts may return to June, one rate cut next year would be a hawkish surprise

On December 19th, Jinshi Data reported that Adam Button, an analyst at the financial website Forexlive, stated that the median estimate for the Federal Reserve’s Intrerest Rate in 2025 is 3.4%, lower than the 4.1% forecast in June. This situation is likely to reverse in December, at least to some extent. The federal funds futures market expects the Intrerest Rate at the end of 2025 to be 3.84%, which is almost exactly in preparation for two more rate cuts next year. One may take place at the meeting in March, and the second may occur in July or September. It would not be surprising if the Federal Reserve’s median Intrerest Rate estimate remains unchanged or rises to a level consistent with market pricing. If the dot plot only shows one more rate cut, it would be a hawkish surprise that causes market Fluctuation.