Ketuo Macro: The fall of Assad is unlikely to have a significant impact on the energy market.

On December 9, Jason Tuvey, an analyst at Capital Economics, said that the fall of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is not expected to have a significant impact on the energy market. The economist said that even at the peak of about 600,000 barrels per day at the beginning of the 21st century, Syria's oil production accounted for only a small fraction of the global oil supply, and that Syria's oil production has declined since the beginning of the civil war in 2011. Now, the country produces less than 100,000 barrels of oil per day, while much of the country's oil infrastructure has been destroyed. "Even if the political situation stabilizes, it will take years, if not decades, to rebuild, and its economy may never return to its pre-war size," Tuvey said in a note to clients. The situation is similar in the energy market. ”