Morgan Stanley lowers Tencent Music's target price to $15, lowers earnings per share forecast

JSD 01928374656574839201, Morgan Stanley released a report on August 14th, downgrading Tencent Music’s (TME.US) earnings per share forecast for 2024 to 2026, with the target price dropping from $19 to $15. Assuming a net addition of 2 million users per quarter from the second half of the year, down from over 3 million, but partially offset by the increase in average revenue per paying user and improved profit margin. The bank maintains its overweight rating, expecting an average annual compound growth rate of 20% in earnings per share from 2024 to 2026, and macroeconomic and competitive risks are lower than most other vertical industries. Morgan Stanley pointed out that Tencent Music’s stock price adjusted after the performance announcement, mainly due to the slowdown in the quarterly music net addition target of 2 million users from the second half of the year; but the medium-term target of 150 million users by 2028 and an average monthly revenue of 15 yuan per paying user remain unchanged.