Morgan Stanley analyst Michael Wilson said that Intrerest Rate will remain the most important determinant of stock index performance in the short term. A team led by Wilson said in a note that as 2024 progresses, they believe the share price will rely more on economic growth outcomes, although Intrerest RateFluctuation is likely to continue to be a driver to watch throughout the year. The consensus estimate for 2023 earnings per share has fallen by 7% over the past three months, while expectations for 2024 have fallen by 18%. After downward revisions over the past few months, we now expect Q4 2023 EPS year-over-year growth to be flat. This downward revision sets a lower threshold for the quarter, which could lead to another mid-single-digit increase in earnings per share. The focus of strategists will be on the magnitude of earnings corrections across sectors in the coming weeks, as this tends to be the best indicator of corporate performance guidance.
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