Prediction Markets Price Uncertainty as Venezuela Eyes New Leadership

Since the U.S. removed Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, prediction markets tied to the Latin American nation have attracted large flows of capital. Two specific contracts focused on who will govern the country by the end of 2026 have already recorded close to $2 million in trading volume.

Prediction Markets Split on Who Will Lead Venezuela by the End of 2026

Prediction markets tracking Venezuela’s political future are converging around a narrow group of contenders, with acting President Delcy Rodríguez now leading on both major platforms as traders reassess who could be in charge by the end of 2026.

On Polymarket, Rodríguez holds a 44% implied probability, putting her well ahead of the rest of the field. Edmundo González Urrutia follows at 21%, while María Corina Machado stands at 18%. Rodríguez is a longtime Venezuelan politician who has held senior roles under Hugo Chávez and Maduro, including foreign minister and vice president.

Polymarket data at 9:15 a.m. Eastern time on Jan. 5, 2025. Edmundo González Urrutia is a veteran diplomat and academic who emerged as the opposition’s unity candidate in the disputed 2024 presidential election. María Corina Machado is a prominent opposition figure and former legislator known for her liberal economic views and vocal criticism of chavismo, rising to international prominence after winning the opposition primary but being barred from running in the 2024 vote.

Lower down the board, captured leader Nicolás Maduro and a “No Head of State” outcome are each priced near 4%, with several long-shot candidates clustered in the low single digits.

Kalshi’s pricing tells a similar but not identical story. On Kalshi, Rodríguez leads with a slightly higher 45% probability, reflecting a sharp reassessment in her favor. González Urrutia is priced at 24%, while Machado follows at 20%, keeping the opposition vote fragmented in market expectations. Unlike Polymarket, Kalshi assigns slightly more weight to secondary figures, including Diosdado Cabello Rondón at 5% and Maduro at 6%.

Kalshi stats at 9:15 a.m. Eastern time on Jan. 5, 2025. Beyond the top tier, probabilities thin out quickly. Names such as Dinorah Figuera, Vladimir Padrino López, and Jorge Rodríguez hover between 3% and 5% on Kalshi, while registering closer to 1%–2% on Polymarket. U.S. political figures, including Donald Trump and Marco Rubio, also appear on both platforms with marginal odds, underscoring the breadth of outcomes traders are technically pricing but largely discounting.

Also read: US Representative Ritchie Torres to Introduce Act Targeting Government Insider Trading in Prediction Markets

Despite minor differences, both markets are signaling the same core takeaway: conviction is building around Rodríguez, but certainty remains elusive. The tight clustering behind the leader suggests traders are still grappling with unresolved questions around Venezuela’s political transition, institutional control, and the durability of post-Maduro power structures.

With nearly all probability mass concentrated among three Venezuelan figures, prediction markets continue to function less as a crystal ball and more as a live barometer of uncertainty—one that remains highly sensitive to new political signals as 2026 approaches.

FAQ 🇻🇪

• **Who is favored to lead Venezuela by the end of 2026?**Delcy Rodríguez leads on both Polymarket and Kalshi, with implied probabilities near the mid-40% range.
• **How do Polymarket and Kalshi differ in their forecasts?**Both favor Rodríguez, but Kalshi assigns slightly higher odds to secondary figures than Polymarket.
• **Why are opposition candidates split in the pricing?**Markets appear to be discounting fragmentation within the opposition and uncertainty over succession dynamics.
• Why do U.S. political figures appear in the markets? Prediction markets often list speculative outcomes broadly, even when traders assign them minimal probability.