Bitcoin computing power falls by 4% to a two-year low, does miner "capitulation" indicate that BTC price has bottomed out?

Recently, Bitcoin's computing power has shown a significant decline. Data shows that in the past 30 days, the Bitcoin network's computing power has decreased by about 4%, marking the largest monthly fall in the past two years. This change has occurred against the backdrop of weakening BTC prices and increased market fluctuation, triggering heightened market attention on miner pressure and Bitcoin price movement.

According to the Bitcoin ChainCheck report released by investment management firm VanEck in mid-December 2025, the price of Bitcoin retraced approximately 9% during the same period, with the actual 30-day volatility rising to over 45%, reaching a new high in several months. The analysis indicates that during significant price downturns, volatility actually increases, reflecting a tightening market sentiment and further squeezing the profit margins of miners.

Another important factor for the fall in Computing Power comes from China. Reports indicate that about 400,000 mining machines in the Xinjiang region have recently been forced to stop operation, resulting in approximately 1.3 gigawatts of electricity and nearly 100 EH/s of Computing Power exiting the network in a short period. Analysts believe this may be related to the shift of electricity resources towards the demand for artificial intelligence Computing Power, and in extreme cases, could have a greater impact on global Bitcoin Computing Power.

The pressure on miners is particularly evident. VanEck data shows that the breakeven electricity price for Bitmain's S19 XP miners has decreased by about 36% over the past year, meaning that mining activities face greater challenges in areas with high electricity prices. However, the report also notes that many institutional miners still choose to continue operations, and some countries even maintain Bitcoin mining with government support to ensure the long-term security of the network.

From historical data, a decline in Computing Power may actually be a “reverse bullish signal” for Bitcoin. Statistics show that when Computing Power decreases over a 30-day period, the probability of BTC achieving positive returns in the subsequent 90 and 180 days is significantly higher than during phases of increasing Computing Power, and the long-term average returns are also higher.

The technical aspects also release positive signals. Market analysts point out that Bitcoin has recently exhibited a rare multi-day bullish divergence pattern, which historically corresponds to a stage bottom. Although BTC price is still under pressure in the short term, the combination of changes in computing power, miner behavior, and technical indicators is intensifying the discussion of “Bitcoin price hitting bottom.”