Crypto Market Rebound? Wallet Data Says ADA and XRP Are Still Bleeding

Santiment’s latest on-chain report shows that the bounce in crypto prices has not fixed the damage for most short-term holders. The market feels a bit better this week, but wallet data tells a different story.

For wallets that have been active in the past 30 days, average returns are still negative across the board. Cardano (ADA) leads the pain with roughly -19.2%. Santiment labels that “extreme undervaluation,” which basically means most recent buyers are deep in the red. Chainlink (LINK) follows with around -13.0%, sitting in the “strong undervaluation” zone. Ethereum (ETH) and Bitcoin (BTC) are both down about -6% for these recent holders, a level Santiment calls “mild undervaluation.” XRP is doing slightly better, at about -4.7%, but it is still below water.

In simple terms, the typical wallet that bought any of these coins in the last month is still losing money today, even after the recent bounce. That is why sentiment on Crypto Twitter and Reddit still feels heavy. People see green candles, but their portfolios are not back to breakeven.

How Santiment’s MVRV chart explains the pain for altcoins

The chart Santiment shared plots the 30-day MVRV ratio for BTC, ETH, ADA, XRP, and LINK. MVRV compares what coins were bought for in the last month versus current prices. When the 30-day MVRV drops into the green “undervaluation” zones on the chart, it tells us that most short-term holders are sitting on losses.

Source: X/@santimentfeed

Cardano’s line is buried near the bottom of the chart, clearly inside the “extreme undervaluation” band. That matches the -19% average return that Santiment flagged. Historically, ADA only spends short bursts in that area before either bouncing hard or grinding sideways while sellers exhaust themselves. It does not guarantee a rally, but it shows how washed out recent buyers are.xhort-term traders give up.

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP sit higher on the chart, in the “mild undervaluation” region. That means their 30-day buyers are losing, but not in extreme fashion. BTC and ETH still behave like the two anchors of the market. They dropped, but not enough to trigger the kind of deep capitulation that usually marks a full-blown macro bottom. XRP is slightly better off than both, yet it also has not erased the drawdown.

Read also: Massive XRP ETF Momentum Could Soon Make Bitcoin Look Small: Here’s What to Expect

What this might mean next

Undervaluation zones in MVRV often line up with good long-term entry areas. They show where fear and frustration dominate, which is usually when patient capital starts to step in. Cardano and Chainlink look the most beaten down by this metric, while BTC, ETH, and XRP sit in softer but still negative territory.

The flip side is that markets can stay undervalued for longer than traders expect, especially if macro headwinds continue or if Bitcoin fails to reclaim key resistance levels. Wallet data tells us the rebound so far has been more of a relief move than a full reset.

For now, Santiment’s chart paints a clear picture. Prices bounced, but the average 30-day holder in ADA, LINK, BTC, ETH, and XRP is still in the red. Until that changes, sentiment is likely to stay cautious, and any new rally will need real spot demand to drag those MVRV lines back toward neutral or profit.

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