Inflation risks are escalating, and the Central Bank of Russia may halt or slow down the rate cut cycle this week.

Jin10 Data, October 24 - Due to Ukraine's attacks on refineries and the upcoming tax increase exacerbating inflation risks, Russia may halt or slow down its interest rate cut cycle this week. Although the Russian economy is struggling under the high borrowing costs that the Central Bank of Russia only began to cut in June, the team of Central Bank Governor Nabiullina has signaled increasing caution ahead of Friday's policy meeting. One of her deputies, Alexey Zabotkin, committed to making a “balanced decision” that reflects “all available information” only when lawmakers urge relief for the budget and businesses. This has led to a divergence among economists regarding the outcome of Friday's meeting. About half expect a reduction from the current key interest rate level of 17%, while the rest do not expect any change.