Can the October curse be broken? XRP price movement faces a historic turning point, with SEC Spot ETF approval being the key.

XRP achieved a price Rebound of 3.66% in September, reversing the 8.15% fall from August, but the upcoming October faces severe seasonal challenges. According to CryptoRank data, XRP's average return rate in October over the past 12 years has been -4.58%. However, October 2025 is crucial due to the approval deadlines for multiple Spot XRP ETF applications (concentrated between October 18 and 25). If the SEC ( approves these ETFs, combined with the latest developments in the XRPL ecosystem and Decentralized Finance, XRP is expected to break the historical curse and achieve a significant transformation towards integration into mainstream finance.

Seasonal Disadvantage: XRP Faces One of Its Historically Weakest Months

![XRP Monthly Performance])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-87a9b3933a-8eef85f1f9-153d09-6d2ef1.webp(

(XRP Monthly Earnings | Source: CryptoRank)

Historical data for XRP shows that October is usually not friendly to its price performance.

· Historical Curse: According to CryptoRank statistics, in the past 12 years, XRP has had seven Octobers closing with negative returns, with an average return of -4.58% in October, making it the weakest month after February and June.

· Breaking the routine hope: Although in February 2025, XRP followed seasonal trends and fell by 29.3%, it unexpectedly rose by 2.95% in June, breaking a seven-year streak of declines. As the cryptocurrency market approaches the so-called "Uptober," analysts see the potential for XRP to break historical patterns again and achieve gains.

Core Catalyst: SEC's Key Ruling on XRP Spot ETF

The core driving force behind the potential reversal of XRP's price trend lies in the upcoming decision by the SEC regarding a series of Spot XRP ETF applications.

· Centralized approval deadline: The SEC plans to make decisions on ETF applications from multiple asset management companies, including Grayscale, 21Shares, Bitwise, Canary Capital, WisdomTree, CoinShares, and Franklin Templeton, between October 18 and 25.

· Potential Institutional Capital Influx: This batch of intensive applications coincides with a surge in market demand for XRP ETF. If approved, it will provide a regulated compliance channel for institutional capital, potentially unlocking massive inflows of funds, thereby significantly boosting the price of XRP. The success of REX-Osprey XRP ETF has already laid an optimistic foundation for the potential positive impact of Spot ETF.

Ecosystem Accelerates Growth: XRPL and DeFi Utility Enhancement

In addition to regulatory catalysts, the practicality and adoption of the XRP Ledger )XRPL( ecosystem itself are also accelerating.

· Securitize empowers XRPL: In late September, the digital securities platform Securitize completed integration with XRPL, aiming to enhance network usability and accessibility.

· RLUSD Liquidity Bridge: Ripple and Securitize have jointly launched a smart contract that allows holders of BlackRock's BUIDL and VanEck's VBILL to instantly convert their shares into Ripple USD )RLUSD( on-chain 24/7 from anywhere. This creates a stable off-chain exit for tokenized funds and enhances deep liquidity. Ripple stablecoin Senior Vice President Jack McDonald stated that adopting RLUSD as an exchange option for tokenized funds is a natural step in connecting traditional finance and the crypto world, emphasizing the regulatory clarity, stability, and real utility that RLUSD possesses.

· Early traction in the DeFi space: In the decentralized finance )DeFi( space, Flare Network's fXRP (a DeFi-compatible token pegged 1:1 to XRP) has launched on the mainnet. Its first week minting cap of 5 million FXRP was fully utilized before the deadline, clearly indicating early market demand and utility.

· Staking TVL surges: Similarly, Midas's mXRP liquid staking token, issued through Axelar on the EVM sidechain of XRPL, accumulated a total locked value of 26 million USD in just six days )TVL(, highlighting the untapped DeFi potential on XRPL.

Conclusion

Although historical data shows that October typically performs poorly for XRP, this month in 2025 brings strong upward catalysts due to the concentration of the SEC Spot ETF approval deadline, the accelerated development of the XRPL ecosystem, and early positive feedback in the DeFi space. If the SEC can approve the Spot XRP ETF, October will become a critical turning point for XRP, transitioning from regulatory uncertainty to mainstream financial integration, fundamentally reshaping its price trajectory. However, if the approval is delayed or denied, or if the macro environment tightens, the price is likely to face the risk of downward volatility again.

Disclaimer: This article is for news information only and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors should make cautious decisions.