Bitcoin Price Forecast: Expert Predicts 70% Chance of New All-Time Highs in Two Weeks  

In a Bitcoin price forecast released on September 19, 2025, market expert Axel Adler predicts a 70% chance of Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs within two weeks, based on bullish indicators like futures premiums and balanced MVRV Z-scores. Bitcoin is currently trading at $117,770, just 5% below its peak, with historical correlations to S&P 500 and Nasdaq ATHs suggesting potential gains to $199,000 in 90 days. This Bitcoin price forecast aligns with post-Fed rate cut momentum, where BTC has resumed upward movement after consolidation. The analysis emphasizes a stepwise uptrend or sideways phase before a surge. This article breaks down the Bitcoin price forecast, technical details, historical data, and market implications in the $3.5 trillion cryptocurrency ecosystem.

Forecast Overview

Axel Adler's Bitcoin price forecast highlights a 70% probability of new highs in the next two weeks, driven by current market conditions favoring consolidation followed by upward movement. The forecast notes Bitcoin's position 5% below all-time highs, with potential for a surge if key levels hold. Adler emphasizes the importance of monitoring the basis and MVRV metrics for confirmation. This Bitcoin price forecast comes amid broader market recovery post-Fed rate cut. It positions BTC for potential stepwise gains in a $3.5 trillion market.

• 70% chance of new ATH within two weeks.
• Current price: $117,770, 5% below peak.
• Forecast scenario: Consolidation then surge.

Technical Indicators

The Bitcoin price forecast relies on bullish signals like BTC futures trading at a premium to spot prices, indicating strong demand. A consistently positive basis and seven-day basis above the thirty-day average suggest a bullish regime. Short-Term Holder (STH) MVRV Z-scores for 155-day and 365-day periods near zero show a balanced market, not overheated or oversold. These indicators support the Bitcoin price forecast's optimistic outlook. Adler's analysis uses these metrics to assess regime shifts.

• Futures premium: Bullish demand signal.
• Positive basis: Seven-day > thirty-day average.
• MVRV Z-scores: Near zero, balanced state.

Historical Correlations and Targets

Adler's Bitcoin price forecast draws on historical data showing Bitcoin's performance after S&P 500 and Nasdaq all-time highs. Post-S&P ATH, BTC averages 12% gains over 30 days and 36% over 90 days, targeting $131,000 and $178,000. Following Nasdaq ATH, gains are 16% over 30 days and 46% over 90 days, eyeing $136,000 and $199,000. This Bitcoin price forecast uses these patterns for potential upside. Historical comparisons provide context for current positioning.

• Post-S&P: $131K (30 days), $178K (90 days).
• Post-Nasdaq: $136K (30 days), $199K (90 days).
• Averages: 12-16% short-term, 36-46% medium-term.

Market Context

The Bitcoin price forecast follows the Fed's 25 basis point rate cut, which has helped BTC resume upward after consolidating below $115,000. Market conditions show a balanced regime, with no overheating signals from MVRV metrics. This Bitcoin price forecast ties to broader trends in the $3.5 trillion cryptocurrency market, where liquidity supports risk assets. Adler notes the stage is set for consolidation before highs. The forecast emphasizes probability over certainty.

• Post-Fed: BTC up from consolidation.
• Market regime: Balanced, no overheating.
• Liquidity: Supports $3.5T ecosystem gains.

Summary

Axel Adler's Bitcoin price forecast predicts a 70% chance of new all-time highs within two weeks, with Bitcoin at $117,770 and targets up to $199,000 based on stock market correlations. Bullish indicators like futures premiums and MVRV Z-scores support this outlook in a $3.5 trillion market. Post-Fed liquidity enhances potential for gains. This Bitcoin price forecast highlights stepwise uptrends. Monitor basis metrics and stock ATHs for updates on the Bitcoin price forecast.