XRP ETF approval ignites the market! $3 becomes a key support, while $3.33 resistance may be the last hurdle before hitting a historic new high.

With the approval of the first U.S. Spot XRP ETF by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Ripple (XRP) is entering a critical moment. On September 12, the price once again broke through $3, with short-term resistance level at $3.33, while the historical high of $3.66 is becoming the ultimate target for the market. The ETF hot spot, institutional adoption, and regulatory developments may collectively shape the trend of XRP in the coming weeks.

ETF Milestone: REX-Osprey Spot XRP ETF is About to Launch

The SEC approved REX-Osprey Spot XRP ETF is expected to officially launch on September 12, 2025, after completing a 75-day review period with no objections, becoming the first Spot XRP ETF in the United States.

Although Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart believes that DOGE and XRP products are more likely to be launched next week, the approval of the product is still seen as an important step for the full rollout of the XRP ETF.

Unlike traditional Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, REX-Osprey adopts a RIC (Registered Investment Company) structure, and the asset portfolio may include Spot, other ETFs, and derivatives, rather than being 100% Spot.

BlackRock Trends and October 'Collective Approval' Expectations

Although BlackRock has not yet submitted the iShares XRP Trust application, the market expects the SEC to collectively approve seven Spot XRP ETFs between October 18 and 25.

Crypto-friendly lawyer Bill Morgan believes that the Franklin Templeton Spot XRP ETF is only 20 days delayed, indicating that the SEC is close to the final approval stage.

Commentator Marty Party refuted the rumors of “BlackRock has no plans,” stating that both SOL and XRP ETF are in discussions and may submit applications before the deadline.

Technical Analysis: $3 support is solid, $3.33 resistance is key

(Source: Trading View)

As of September 11, XRP closed at $3.0398, rising for two consecutive days and reaching above $3 for the first time since August 26.

Support level: $3.00 → $2.80 → $2.50

Resistance level: 3.33 USD → Historical high point 3.66 USD

If it breaks through 3.33 USD, it will pave the way for challenging the historical high; conversely, if it drops below 3 USD, it may retest 2.80 USD or even 2.50 USD.

Potential Catalysts and Scenario Analysis

Bullish Scenario

1. BlackRock submitted and obtained approval for iShares XRP Trust

2. More blue-chip companies will incorporate XRP into their treasury reserves.

3. Ripple obtains a chartered bank license in the United States.

4. The “Market Structure Bill” has been passed, promoting payment and cross-border adoption.

5. SWIFT's market share has been replaced by Ripple technology.

Bearish Scenario

1. SEC rejects Spot ETF or further delays

2. Legislation is hindered, and the regulatory environment is deteriorating.

3. Institutional adoption is below expectations.

4. Ripple's bank license application has faced setbacks.

Conclusion

XRP is at a critical turning point. ETF approval and regulatory progress could trigger a “perfect storm,” pushing the price past the historical high of $3.66; however, if regulatory or market catalysts fall short, the price may retreat to the $2.5 range. In the coming weeks, the $3 support and $3.33 resistance will be the core areas that traders must pay attention to.