Bitunix分析师：霍尔木兹风险升级，油金链条启动，BTC上方空单流动性堆积

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2026-03-03 03:17:40

BTC-2,66%

BlockBeats 消息，3 月 3 日，迪拜黄金空运枢纽航班暂停，实物流通短期受阻；同时伊朗宣称关闭霍尔木兹海峡，市场提前交易能源中断风险。油价急涨，推升通胀预期、压缩降息空间，石油—通胀—利率—黄金链条重新定价。机构偏多黄金，不过若油价推升实际利率，金价短期或承压，波动率料放大。跨市场看，高油价压缩风险资产估值，资金转向美元与黄金避险，未来数周核心在通胀与实际利率博弈。

加密市场方面，BTC 自 65,000 急拉至 70,000 上方后回落，属典型「上扫流动性」。69,500–70,500 为主要空单堆积区；68,000 下方多头杠杆已出清；64,000 仍存次级流动性。市场已完成第一阶段「清多」，焦点转向是否进一步挤压上方空单。若 69,000 上方站稳失败，行情或回归区间；若放量吞噬 69,800 以上流动性，将触发空单被动回补。

总结而言，宏观波动放大，但 BTC 仍处于区间内流动性博弈阶段。

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