BlockBeats 消息，3 月 2 日，中东局势急剧恶化，美以对伊朗发动大规模空袭，伊朗方面确认包括最高领袖在内的多名高层遇袭身亡。冲突外溢效应迅速冲击全球能源与金融市场。
特朗普表示，对伊朗的军事行动可能持续约四周，美军已打击数百个目标，包括伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队总部、防空系统及海军设施，并称行动未涉及核设施。美方披露已动用 B-2 隐形轰炸机等装备。
伊朗方面宣布成立临时领导委员会，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队称已发起第九轮「真实承诺 4」行动，并宣称击落多架美以无人机。伊朗警告，若能源设施遭袭，将打击地区油气设施。
航运数据显示，霍尔木兹海峡及附近海域超过 200 艘船只抛锚，包含石油与液化气运输船。有油轮在波斯湾沿岸遇袭受损。保险经纪机构预计，战争险保费或上调 25%–50%。
高盛估计，若霍尔木兹海峡供应全面中断 6 周，油价可能出现每桶 18 美元的风险溢价；若仅 50% 供应中断 1 个月，溢价约 4 美元。国际油价跳涨，Brent Crude 与 WTI Crude Oil 盘初显著走高。多家机构认为，若油价逼近 90 美元/桶，全球通胀与货币政策路径将面临再评估。
避险情绪升温，黄金走强，美元兑日元基本持稳，美元兑瑞郎走低。欧元兑美元跌破 1.18。中东主要股指盘中跌幅达 4%–5%，伊朗股市暂停交易，阿联酋多家交易所宣布临时停市。据 CME「美联储观察」，美联储 3 月维持利率不变的概率为 93.6%，市场仍押注短期内政策按兵不动。
美国国会大厦将实施加强安保措施。英国报告称，塞浦路斯境内的英军基地发生爆炸。巴基斯坦北部部分地区实施宵禁。欧盟宣布将增派舰艇强化红海及海湾海域安全。分析认为，当前核心变量在于：
1）霍尔木兹海峡是否持续受阻；
2）冲突是否扩大至更广泛地区；
3）能源价格上行是否重新点燃全球通胀预期。
若能源运输保持畅通，市场或阶段性修复；若油气供应受实质冲击，全球资产价格波动或进一步放大。
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