中東地緣衝突推升避險需求,防禦型資產有哪些?

BTC3,72%

中東地區迅速蔓延的衝突加劇了投資者的焦慮情緒,隨著亞洲市場開盤,交易員紛紛強化了對美元、黃金和瑞士法郎等避險資產的需求。目前市場高度關注荷莫茲海峽的航運狀況,該地區的任何中斷皆可能引發國際原油價格波動。若能源價格持續上漲,不僅會增加企業營運成本,亦可能對全球經濟帶來通膨壓力。此時投資人的資產又該如何配置因應?

資金轉向傳統避險資產

中東衝突擴大使得市場不確定性增加,投資機構多採取「先避險」的策略,因為襲擊和伊朗報復的規模都超出了市場預期。在近期交易中,美元呈現走強態勢,瑞士法郎兌主要貨幣亦小幅上漲。這類避險資產的需求攀升,反映出市場對全球股市高估值的擔憂。面對地緣風險,經理人選擇降低風險曝險,黃金與國債因而成為資金停泊的重要標的。

能源供應與通膨壓力隱憂

本次衝突的核心宏觀風險在於荷莫茲海峽(Strait of Hormuz)的運輸安全,該狹窄水域承載全球約四分之一的海運原油交易。市場機構評估,若航運受阻,原油價格可能出現 5% 至 10% 的短期漲幅。能源價格上漲將直接推升生產與物流成本,引發全球市場的通膨壓力。特別對於高度依賴能源進口的新興市場而言,高油價將擴大經常帳赤字並壓縮實質所得,使經濟面臨停滯性通膨(Stagflation,即經濟成長停滯伴隨物價上漲)的潛在風險。

股市板塊輪動與央行政策挑戰

在地緣衝突與高油價風險的背景下,全球股市面臨不同程度的重新定價壓力。產業板塊呈現顯著分化,能源、金屬、國防以及公用事業等防禦型類股表現相對具支撐力;反觀依賴消費者支出的零售與航空業,則易受成本上升衝擊。此外,若油價長期居高不下,將使美國聯準會(Fed)在應對通膨與支持經濟之間陷入兩難。貨幣政策若被迫轉向緊縮,將進一步牽動全球債券殖利率曲線變化。整體而言,地緣事件對市場的長期影響仍取決於能源供應是否產生實質性中斷。

比特幣是逃命錢還是高風險資產?

比特幣在週六衝突消息傳出後,價格由 65K下跌至 63K,但在週日出現大幅反彈,BTC 一度上漲逾 2% 來到 68K 上方,但截稿前又緩跌至 66K。在避險與撤離的需求下,比特幣這次將化身逃命錢還是高風險資產呢?

(比特幣化身逃命錢?中東戰火延燒BTC反彈至68K)

阿布達比證券交易所和杜拜金融市場休市兩天

阿聯酋資本市場管理局則直接宣布,阿布達比證券交易所和杜拜金融市場將於3月2日和3日休市。以避免在伊朗對美國和以色列空襲進行報復後可能出現的市場崩潰。

自週六上午以來,杜拜和阿布達比已遭受來自伊朗的數百枚飛彈和無人機攻擊,雖然大部分攻擊已被攔截,但這些攻擊引發了居民的恐慌,並對阿聯酋的經濟及其作為穩定的金融、物流和旅遊中心的地位構成了巨大威脅。

阿聯酋證券交易所的總市值達1.1兆美元,位居全球第19名。其在MSCI新興市場指數中的權重為1.4%。據彭博社報導,此種休市並不常見,除定期安排的假日外,阿聯酋證券交易所通常只在全國哀悼期間關閉。

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