美联储研究论文称预测市场具重要分析价值

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Prediction Market Macroeconomics Monetary Policy

2026-02-19 22:37:11

Odaily星球日报讯美联储（Federal Reserve）研究人员发布最新论文，对预测市场在经济分析中的作用给予高度评价，特别点名研究了预测平台 Kalshi 的表现。

报告指出，Kalshi 在联邦基金利率及美国消费者价格指数（CPI）方面的预测，统计表现优于联邦基金期货与专业经济学家预测，并能提供持续更新的完整概率分布，而非传统的间断性点预测。

研究还认为，预测市场在 GDP 增长、核心通胀、失业率及非农就业等领域提供了独特的市场化分布数据，这些变量此前缺乏可比的市场定价工具。自 2022 年以来，Kalshi 对联邦基金利率会议结果的预测与实际结果完全一致。

报告指出，预测市场的一大优势在于零售投资者的参与，使其区别于由机构主导的传统金融市场，从而在信息整合与实时反映市场预期方面具有独特价值。

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