美国就业与CPI风暴将至:比特币价格在政府停摆阴影下何去何从?

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2月11日消息,比特币价格在小幅回落后维持在66,000美元附近,市场正屏息等待多项关键宏观数据的指引,其中包括美国最新就业报告、消费者价格指数(CPI)以及美国政府潜在停摆风险。以太坊同步承压,价格仍在2,000美元下方,反映出加密市场整体风险偏好偏弱。当前数字资产总市值约为2.29万亿美元,过去24小时下滑约2.5%。

美国方面,延迟发布的1月就业报告将披露非农就业、失业率及工资通胀情况,被视为评估2026年经济开局的重要依据。此前12月新增就业岗位约5万个,失业率降至4.4%。经济学家预计,1月新增岗位将回升至5.5万个,失业率或维持不变。关税政策、移民限制以及人工智能加速替代传统岗位,被认为是扰动劳动力市场的主要变量。

通胀层面,中国1月CPI同比仅上涨0.2%,低于市场预期,生产者价格指数同比下降1.4%,显示制造业仍面临价格压力。全球通胀信号分化,也加剧了风险资产的不确定性。

与此同时,美国政府部分机构在2月13日午夜面临停摆风险。预测市场普遍认为,国土安全相关部门出现短期停摆的概率较高,这一不确定因素同样压制了市场情绪。

从技术面看,比特币在70,000美元一线受阻后进入区间整理。相对强弱指数为37,接近超卖区域,MACD维持负值,显示短线结构偏弱。若跌破65,000美元支撑,价格可能进一步测试60,000美元区域;上方关键阻力位仍在72,000美元,突破该水平才可能扭转当前节奏。

在宏观数据密集发布与政策风险交织之际,比特币正处于关键抉择区间,短期走势将高度依赖外部变量的变化。

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