XRP 月线图上的 MACD 直方图跌至 -0.1234，刷新历史最低纪录，显示空头力量已达到前所未有的水平。该信号出现在 XRP 跌破 1.6 美元支撑位之后，市场情绪持续承压。1 月 29 日，XRP 曾短暂反弹至 1.91 美元，但随后抛压迅速回归，价格在 1 月 30 日失守关键区域，创下自 2024 年 11 月以来的新低。
进入 2026 年 2 月后，XRP 再度回落，当月已下跌 3.39%，并有可能录得自 2016 年以来首次连续第五个月下跌。持续走弱的价格结构，使得月线 MACD 柱状图急剧下探，远低于 2022 年 8 月的前低 -0.0822。当时，市场正处于 Terra 崩盘后的恐慌阶段，而 XRP 也在随后出现阶段性反弹。
市场评论员 Chart Nerd 指出，当前读数表明卖方主导局面仍在延续。价格方面，XRP 已从 1 月中旬的 2 美元上方连续跌破 1.9、1.8、1.7 美元关口，目前在 1.59 美元附近徘徊。自去年高点以来，累计跌幅已超过 44%，技术结构明显偏弱。
MACD 处于极端负值区，既意味着抛售强度前所未见，也暗示市场可能进入超卖区间。历史上，这类信号有时会伴随短期反弹，但并非每次都对应真正的底部。2019 年也曾出现深度负值后继续下行的情况，说明风险尚未完全释放。
对交易者而言，当前阶段更像是趋势确认与情绪修复的交汇点。若 XRP 无法尽快重回 1.6 美元上方并站稳，价格可能继续承压；但若后续动能出现修复，技术性反弹的窗口也将随之打开。市场正等待新的方向指引。
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