机构:预计「小非农」增长将放缓,且将显著低于1月非农就业人数

GateNews

BlockBeats 消息,2 月 4 日,独立宏观经济研究机构 Continuum Economics 北美地区高级经济学家 Dave Sloan 表示,预计 1 月 ADP 就业人数将增加 3 万,较 12 月的 4.1 万有所放缓。

同时,预计 ADP 报告数据将显著低于 1 月的非农就业数据,因为我们预计 1 月整体非农就业人数将增长 8.5 万。12 月 ADP 数据与非农就业数据基本一致,但近期 ADP 数据表现往往偏弱,过去六个月 ADP 数据平均低于非农 2.2 万人。虽较 9 月和 11 月的差距有所收窄,预计 1 月这一差距将扩大至 5 万人。1 月非农就业预计将从近期零售业的疲软中反弹,而这一因素对 ADP 数据影响较小。

预计 1 月 ADP 细分数据将显示商品生产部门(尤其是建筑业)小幅改善,但服务业增速放缓。近期 ADP 数据表现弱于非农的趋势在服务业领域最为明显,教育医疗行业的数据差异尤为突出。(金十)

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