XRP跌破100周均线再现“2022式信号”?技术面预警或指向0.75美元

XRP0,37%

2月2日消息,受加密货币市场持续走弱影响,XRP 近期出现关键技术破位。数据显示,XRP 周线收盘价正式跌破 100 周指数移动平均线(EMA),这一信号在历史上曾引发大幅回调。当前 XRP 已连续四周收跌,自1月初以来跌幅接近30%,现报约1.55美元,成为本轮调整中表现最疲弱的主流资产之一。

市场分析师 Chart Nerd 指出,100 周均线长期被视为 XRP 的“结构支撑”。2023 至 2024 年间,价格始终围绕该均线震荡,区间约在0.42至0.70美元。2024年11月,在特朗普政府相关政策预期推动下,XRP 突破该均线并一路上行,2024年12月最高触及2.9美元。2025年全年,XRP 在2至3美元区间运行,而100周均线也随之抬升。

进入2025年第四季度后,XRP 多次回测该均线。10月10日跌至1.58美元、11月回落至1.81美元、12月31日触及1.8091美元后均出现短线反弹。但不同的是,1月25日当周收盘价报1.83美元,已确认跌破当时位于1.87美元的100周均线。

Chart Nerd 提到,上一次类似的周线破位发生在2022年4月,随后 XRP 出现约60%的快速下跌,并最终回落至长期上升趋势线附近。若按这一历史节奏推演,XRP 可能下探至0.75美元区域,与关键趋势支撑重合。

不过,他也强调,这只是基于历史结构的技术推算,并非必然结果。当前更重要的观察点,是价格能否重新站回100周均线上方(约1.86美元)。若无法收复该位置,市场情绪可能继续承压;反之,则可能缓解下行风险并带来阶段性修复机会。

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