隨著聯準會（Fed）利率決策會議逼近，加上總體經濟與政治風險交織，投資人轉趨保守，比特幣今（28）持續在 9 萬美元大關下方徘徊，市場觀望氣氛濃厚。
鏈上數據：市場轉攻為守，避險需求升溫
區塊鏈數據分析機構 Glassnode 在最新報告中指出，現貨交易量雖回穩但仍顯低迷，表明市場正處於盤整期，並未出現趨勢性走勢。報告強調，無論是現貨、衍生品還是鏈上指標，皆顯示市場已轉向「防禦性」布局，賣壓依舊沉重，且避險需求同步升溫。
Glassnode 分析師表示：「雖然槓桿率開始降溫，但在持續的拋售壓力和避險需求推升下，市場結構依然脆弱。後市能否回穩，全看多頭買盤何時回歸，以及賣壓何時消退。」
機構縮手：ETF 單週失血 13 億美元
事實上，機構投資者的動向也印證了下行風險。數據顯示，全球加密貨幣 ETP 上周淨流出 17 億美元；美國比特幣現貨 ETF 更連續 5 個交易日錄得淨流出，總失血額逾 13 億美元。這波典型的「去風險化」現象與幣價走軟的趨勢相符。隨著機構需求降溫，比特幣已從 1 月中旬 97,850 美元的高點回檔超過 10% 。
Bitfinex 分析團隊觀察衍生品市場發現，選擇權市場的短期波動率曲線顯著變陡。這意味著交易員正在進行針對短期事件（如 Fed 決策）的戰術性避險，而非看壞中長期的市場結構。遠期合約的隱含波動率變化不大，顯示市場並未過度恐慌。
從總體經濟角度來看，分析師普遍認為，比特幣受阻於 9 萬美元關卡，反映的是利率預期重新定價，而非需求結構崩壞。
Axis 共同創辦人 Jimmy Xue 指出，隨著市場對「高利率將維持更久」的預期升溫，使風險資產的投資門檻明顯提高，比特幣必須與殖利率近 4% 的無風險美債正面競爭。他強調：
比特幣必須憑藉自身作為結構性避險工具的優勢參與競爭，而不僅僅是當個『高 Beta 值的流動性海綿』。
資金成本變高，意味著 2025 年那種機構資金隨便買隨便賺的日子已經結束，取而代之的是更挑惕、更看重價值的增長階段。
拋售加密貨幣、轉投黃金白銀
更廣泛的避險情緒加劇了這一背景，地緣政治動盪、美國政府關門危機，以及大型科技股財報集中風險，都促使資金逃往黃金與白銀等傳統避險資產。 Wincent 資深總監 Paul Howard 指出，圍繞總體經濟的擔憂促使交易員拋售加密貨幣，轉而投資大宗商品。
OKX 新加坡執行長 Gracie Lin 則表示，隨著多重總體經濟風險交疊，市場對消息面極度敏感。在黃金創高、政治與監管不確定性未解的情況下，比特幣短期內恐維持區間震盪。
她指出，真正影響後市行情的未必是利率決策，而是決策出爐前後的流動性變化與市場風險偏好。
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