
美國11月 PPI 數據高於預期導致美股下跌,然而,比特幣卻走出獨立漲勢,在最近 24 小時內最高漲到 97,924 美元,突破了 99 日均線位置,原因是什麼?
美PPI指數高企,美股下挫但比特幣飆漲
美國昨晚公布去年 11 月生產者物價指數(PPI),月增率達 0.2%,高於市場預期的 0.1%,年增率則為 3.0%。
市場前一天還在為 12 月 CPI 數據符合預期叫好,但 PPI 數據公開後,又對未來降息預期擔憂。
美國三大指數收跌,包括標普指數收跌 0.53%,創下 2026 年以來首次連續兩日下跌,那斯達克指數也下挫 1%。**然而,****比特幣($BTC)**卻走出獨立漲勢,在最近 24 小時內最高漲到 97,924 美元,突破了 99 日均線位置,目前則回落至 96,552 美元。

圖源:CoinMarketCap 比特幣在最近 24 小時內最高漲到 97,924 美元
比特幣連續兩日大漲,原因是什麼?
綜合外媒分析,比特幣之所以能無視 PPI 指數逆風上漲,主要原因是比特幣 ETF 流入大量資金、軋空效應與金髮姑娘(Goldilocks)現象。
SoSoValue 數據顯示,美國比特幣現貨 ETF 週二流入 7.53 億美元資金,創下自去年 10 月 7 日以來的最大單日流入量。
分析師認為,ETF 資金流入顯示傳統與機構投資人在完成投資組合再平衡後,資金正重新輪動回風險資產。

圖源:SoSoValue 美國比特幣現貨 ETF 週二流入 7.53 億美元資金
《Cointelegraph》分析則指出,Coinbase 溢價指數顯示美方拋壓減緩,且流入 Coinbase Advanced 的資金達基準 2.5 倍,暗示機構正積極佈局。此外,幣安單小時淨買入量突破 5 億美元,加上永續合約資金費率創數月新低,反映市場空頭部位過度擁擠,進而引發軋空而推升現貨價格。

圖源:Cointelegraph Coinbase 溢價指數顯示美方拋壓減緩,且流入 Coinbase Advanced 的資金達基準 2.5 倍
而加密交易公司 QCP Capital 也認為,儘管委內瑞拉和伊朗局勢動盪,美國也牽涉其中,但總體經濟背景仍處在金髮姑娘狀態,意指經濟溫和增長,既不過熱(高通膨),也不過冷(衰退),失業率低,利率穩定。
再加上美國正在推進加密市場結構法案的審議進度,監管透明度的改善,增強了投資人對加密貨幣及其他資產類別的風險偏好。
比特幣需守住9.35萬支撐,10萬觸手可及?
隨著比特幣價格逼近歷史高點,知名分析師 Rekt Capital 表示,比特幣需要守住 93,500 美元關鍵支撐位,若價格持續上攻,到 10 萬之前較無阻力,但在 103,300 美元至 107,500 美元之間可能有較大賣壓。

圖源:RektCapital 知名分析師 Rekt Capital 表示,比特幣需要守住 93,500 美元關鍵支撐位
另一方面,資深分析師 Marcel Pechman 指出,比特幣選擇權的 Delta 斜率指標顯示,賣權(Put)的交易價格仍高於買權(Call),代表專業交易員對比特幣能否持續站穩 10 萬美元以上,仍持懷疑態度。
**彭博社也補充,雖然部分財富管理機構認為美股今年開局尚可,但隨著科技股財報季即將到來,加上地緣政治擔憂,市場波動可能加劇。**對於比特幣而言,能否在上述隱憂下,持續依靠 ETF 資金流入維持獨立行情,將是接下來觀察的重點。
延伸閱讀:
網傳委內瑞拉有600億鎂比特幣,美國會吞掉嗎?SEC:是否沒收有待觀察
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