分析:非农与关税裁决直接对决,委内瑞拉只是背景噪音

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Odaily星球日报讯 根据经济学家的预测中值,预计美国经济上月新增了 7.3 万个就业岗位,高于 11 月的 6.4 万个,同时失业率预计将从之前的 4.6%降至 4.5%。ADP 的私营部门就业报告(“小非农”)将于周三出炉,比政府数据早两天,但通常不被视为可靠的前瞻指标。另外,美国最高法院可能在周五——即 12 月非农发布的同一天——就特朗普全球关税的合法性作出裁决,这同样可能对市场产生一定影响。

“利率和信用工具的交易取决于美国增长、通胀以及美联储下一步的行动,”德克萨斯州普莱诺的 Wisdom Fixed Income Management 投资组合经理文森特·安(Vincent Ahn)表示。“这就是为什么像周五就业报告这样的事件对国债市场的重要性远超委内瑞拉。只有当委内瑞拉事件导致油价持续波动,进而影响汽油价格和通胀时,它才会进入市场视野,而目前市场并未看到这种情况。”

换句话说,“委内瑞拉未能影响债市,是因为它未能改变通胀叙事,”文森特在给 MarketWatch 的一封电子邮件中补充道。(金十)

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