PlanB is of the opinion that Bitcoin is undertraded. He posits that Bitcoin is rarer than both gold and real estate but it is priced by markets 10 to 100 times less. The basis of his comparison is scarcity as the fundamental source of long-term value and puts Bitcoin in a perspective of a misjudged asset in the current financial framework. This mismatch, as PlanB indicates, is a rare opportunity.
The Stock-to-Flow Data Argues the Case
PlanB supports his argument using a stock-to-flow (S2F) chart. The model indicates that the scarcity ratio of Bitcoin is by far higher than that of gold over 50 times more and, by several orders of magnitude, compared to the supply dynamics of real estate. Nevertheless, Bitcoin has a market capitalization that is almost half of gold, standing at approximately $1.7 trillion and the estimated market capitalization of real estate throughout the world, which is estimated at 400 trillion. The statistics indicate the fact that markets are still in the process of fully pricing the fixed supply of Bitcoin.
The log-log regression model of the S2F model of PlanB displays a good historical fit with a regression coefficient of R 2 = 0.995. According to the model, the value of Bitcoin will increase following the 2024 halving when the use will match the scarcity. Although Bitcoin did not follow the model during some of 2021, PlanB concludes that long-term cycles are still in line with supply downsizing. He views scarcity as reiterating itself with time.
Adoption Could Close the Gap
Trust and adoption are some of the important variables in community responses. Gold has thousands of years of history, whereas Bitcoin is not much older than ten years. Nevertheless, ETF inflows, institutional involvement and changing macro conditions might accelerate adoption exponentially. Decreasing yields and growing fiat liquidity can also make Bitcoin even stronger as a scarce asset. PlanB is of the view that these forces may bring about convergence in the next one or two years.
PlanB understands the present as being a turning point. Bitcoin is an unparalleled asset with institutional increasing access, and it is still being significantly undervalued in markets compared to similar assets. As long as adoption keeps climbing, he thinks Bitcoin will be brought nearer to the value based on its scarcity. To him, the price-fundamentals disparity puts this in a particularly important position in the long-term tendency of Bitcoin.
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