最新链上数据显示，比特币长期持有者终于出现关键转变。持有比特币至少 155 天的钱包，在经历长达约 6 个月的持续减仓后，首次显现出停止抛售的迹象。这一变化被市场视为比特币价格企稳的重要信号，也为后续走势提供了情绪支撑。
数据显示，这类长期持有者的比特币持仓量曾从 7 月中旬的约 1480 万枚，下降至 12 月的约 1430 万枚。不过，加密货币投资者 Ted Pillows 指出，自 2025 年 7 月以来，长期持有者首次未再出现明显卖出行为，表明抛压正在显著放缓。在历史周期中，长期持有者行为往往被视为比特币中长期趋势的重要风向标。
与此同时，以太坊巨鲸正在明显加仓。根据 CryptoQuant 数据，自 12 月 26 日以来，持有 1000 枚以上 ETH 的大额地址累计增持约 12 万枚以太坊。目前，这类地址控制着约 70% 的 ETH 流通供应，占比自 2024 年底以来持续上升。分析认为，这一趋势可能反映出机构和高净值投资者对以太坊中长期前景的信心。
市场资金结构的变化也值得关注。BitForex 前 CEO Garrett Jin 表示，随着此前表现强劲的白银、钯金和铂金出现阶段性见顶，部分资金正在重新流入比特币和以太坊等加密资产。这一轮资产轮动，可能为加密市场带来新的增量资金。
短期内，市场情绪仍偏谨慎。过去 7 天，比特币价格在 86744 美元至 90064 美元区间震荡。Santiment 指出，圣诞节前后价格反弹伴随着明显的 FUD 情绪升温，而价格回落后，交易者再度转向防御。
此外，美国市场的抛售压力仍未完全消退。美国龙头CEX比特币溢价指数持续为负，显示美国投资者风险偏好下降。综合来看，比特币长期持有者停止抛售与以太坊巨鲸持续加仓，正在为加密市场释放结构性企稳信号，但短期波动风险依然存在。
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