管理超過 7900 億美元資產的全球研究和經紀公司伯恩斯坦宣布，傳統的四年加密貨幣週期已經結束。該公司將比特幣 2026 年目標價上調至 15 萬美元，2027 年可能達到週期高峰 20 萬美元，2033 年長期目標更是直指 100 萬美元。分析師稱之為「長期牛市」，核心邏輯在於機構買盤創造了全新的市場結構。
機構買盤改寫比特幣遊戲規則
（來源：Sovryn）
VanEck 數位資產研究主管 Matthew Sigel 引述伯恩斯坦的觀點指出，在最近的市場調整之後，「比特幣週期已經打破了四年的模式，現在正處於一個較長的牛市週期，更持久的機構買盤抵消了任何散戶恐慌性拋售。」這個論斷的支撐數據極具說服力。儘管比特幣從 10 月初開始下跌了約 30%，但透過 ETF 的資金流出僅為 5% 左右，這鮮明地表明了機構投資者的信心與散戶行為形成了巨大反差。
傳統四年周期源於比特幣減半機制，每四年挖礦獎勵減半一次，供應衝擊推動價格上漲，隨後進入熊市調整。然而，機構投資者的進場徹底改變了這個邏輯。ETF 提供了合規通道，養老金、主權基金和企業財務部門可以穩定配置比特幣，這種持續性買盤不再受減半週期驅動，而是基於長期資產配置需求。伯恩斯坦的分析顯示，當機構買盤成為主導力量時，市場波動率降低，牛市週期延長，傳統四年節奏自然失效。
聯準會流動性注入成催化劑
倫敦加密俱樂部的分析師 David Brickell 和 Chris Mills 認為，聯準會週三注入流動性可能會成為強有力的催化劑，有可能推動比特幣「大幅上漲」。他們表示央行已做好準備，將帶來「鴿派驚喜」。他們寫道：「隨著美聯儲實際上啟動印鈔機以貨幣化赤字，我們將進入持續降息週期，同時資產負債表也將擴張。」
這與伯恩斯坦的比特幣 15 萬美元目標形成了完美的宏觀敘事配合。M2 貨幣供應量已達創紀錄的 22.3 兆美元，量化緊縮結束後的儲備重建計劃每月可能注入 350 億美元流動性。歷史數據顯示，比特幣對流動性週期的反應比對利率變化更敏感。2020 年 3 月聯準會啟動無限量 QE 後，比特幣從 3800 美元飆升至 69000 美元，正是流動性氾濫的結果。若 2026 年流動性持續擴張，15 萬美元目標在邏輯上完全可行。
技術面支撐長期牛市論述
（來源：Trading View）
週線圖顯示比特幣守住了關鍵的 78000 美元支撐位，這區分了更深的熊市下跌和宏觀上升趨勢的延續。價格近期大幅下跌，但已在 20 週均線附近穩定，而 50 週均線繼續向上傾斜，顯示儘管出現回調，但長期趨勢依然完好。RSI 動能已降溫至 40 中段，反映出市場已從超買狀態回落，但並未達到主要週期底部出現的極端超賣水準。
只要比特幣維持在 78000 美元區域，這種結構就表明它處於更大的牛市週期內的盤整階段。反彈至 102000 美元以上將表明價格重拾漲勢，而突破 108000 美元阻力區將確認價格繼續創下新高。從風險報酬比來看，當前位置提供了良好的進場機會，若伯恩斯坦的預測兌現，從 90000 美元到 150000 美元意味著 66% 的上漲空間。
伯恩斯坦的革命性預測不僅是數字遊戲，而是對比特幣市場結構根本性轉變的認知。當機構成為主導力量，比特幣從投機工具進化為配置資產，傳統周期自然失效，長期牛市成為新常態。
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