本周，比特币和以太坊均出现明显反弹，但 XRP 却继续维持在自 11 月中旬以来的窄幅区间内震荡。尽管一项通常代表看涨趋势的链上指标创下三个月新高，价格却仍未出现突破。背后的关键原因在于长期持有者行为与整体链上结构的分化。
链上数据显示，已花费代币数量在过去一个月大幅下降，从 11 月 15 日的 1.8636 亿枚 XRP 下降至目前的约 1632 万枚，暴跌 91%，为三个月最低水平。较老供应的减少意味着市场抛售压力显著下降，这通常会促成价格企稳甚至反弹。因此，休眠率升至三个月高位本应构成利好。
然而，长期持有者却在持续削减持仓，抵消了这一积极信号。HODL Waves 数据显示，持有 6-12 个月的群体占比从 26.18% 降至 21.65%；持有 1-2 年的群体从 9.34% 降至 8.61%；持有 2-3 年的群体也略有下降。这些老持有者通常是趋势的稳定支柱，他们的减少意味着上涨动能被削弱。
（来源：Glassnode）
尽管近期出现巨鲸增持的情况，但长期供应持续流出仍然压制了价格表现。XRP 要迎来实质性反弹，市场需看到这些关键持有者群体停止抛售。
从技术面看，图表同样呈现胶着状态。自 11 月以来，XRP 多次尝试突破 2.28 美元均未成功，该价位是形成上行趋势的核心阻力。日线收盘若能成功突破 2.28 美元，将为冲击 2.56 美元和 2.69 美元打开空间。但若价格跌破 1.98 美元，将可能触发回调至 1.81 美元。
当前结构清晰：休眠大幅上升、抛压减少，但长期供应仍在外流。除非持币群体趋于稳定，并且价格收于 2.28 美元上方，否则 XRP 仍可能继续维持区间震荡。（BeinCrypto）
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