加密货币市场专家 Matrixport 指出，比特币价格目前处于多空双方罕见的僵持地带，引发交易员对年底走势的激烈讨论：比特币究竟会反弹至10万美元，还是跌回8万美元？
感恩节期间，比特币反弹至9.18万美元以上，这种现象在圣诞节前常见。Matrixport 强调，当价格触及8万美元时，出现了看涨“锤子线”反转形态，为反弹提供技术支撑。然而，Glassnode 数据显示，由于市场流动性下降和已实现损失增加，比特币正陷入区间震荡，期货市场去杠杆化，期权维持防御性，整体需求仍偏弱。
Matrixport 认为，目前比特币仓位、投资者情绪及宏观政策交汇，形成罕见僵局。同时，隐含波动率下跌，对防崩盘工具的需求减少。美联储降息预期推动现货比特币ETF资金流入，刺激投资者兴趣，但短期趋势仍不明朗。
从技术面来看，比特币链上成本基础指标是后续上涨的关键。若价格突破9.3万至9.6万美元的供应区间，将为年底冲击10万至10.8万美元提供条件。但近期买盘压力仍可能形成阻力，短期行情仍需密切关注投资者情绪与市场流动性。
综合来看，比特币虽有潜力冲击10万美元，但多空僵局与季节性波动使价格走势仍存在较大不确定性，交易员需谨慎应对。
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