3.25 Bitcoin Morning Analysis

The Federal Reserve's hawkish tone persists, with high interest rates suppressing valuations of non-yield-bearing assets. Combined with escalating geopolitical risks, capital is migrating from high-volatility crypto markets toward safe-haven assets like the US dollar and US Treasury bonds, resulting in an overall decline in risk appetite.

Bitcoin is repeatedly facing pressure at the 70500 key resistance level. After surging higher, it formed a large bearish candle with increased volume, retracing without sufficient strength to recover above the candle's body. Short-term moving averages show signs of turning downward, bullish momentum is clearly weakening, and a local bearish engulfing pattern is forming. ETF fund outflows are modest, but the proportion of unrealized long positions in futures contracts is declining, with increased intention to close profitable positions on short-term rallies. If 70200 minor support breaks down, it will trigger stop-loss orders forming a "decline-sell-off" negative feedback loop.

Trading Recommendation: Short 71000-71500; Target 69000-69500.