War Won't Interrupt the Long Bull, Short Bear Trend of US Equities
A psychological massage for myself and everyone:
Based on US equity data from 1940-2026, US stock performance after major geopolitical shock events:
1 month: Average -0.9%, Median -0.2%, Probability of gain 46%
3 months: Average +0.8%, Median +2.7%, Probability of gain 66%
6 months: Average +3.4%, Median +5.3%, Probability of gain 61%
1 year: Average +3.0%, Median +7.4%, Probability of gain 65%
The comparison reveals that geopolitical events (wars/assassinations/terrorist attacks/escalating conflicts) such as the Cuban Missile
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