Polymarket在創紀錄增長後尋求$12 億估值 - Brave New Coin

The cryptocurrency-based platform has grown from a $1 billion valuation in June 2025 to potentially 15 times that amount in less than six months.

The fundraising talks come as Polymarket posted record-breaking numbers throughout 2025. The platform processed over $18.1 billion in total trading volume and grew its user base from 20,000 to nearly 58,000 daily active users. November alone is projected to reach $3.5 billion in trading volume, following October’s record of over $3 billion.

From Zero to Billionaire in Four Years

Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan, now 27, launched the platform in 2020 while working from a makeshift bathroom office. By October 2025, he became the world’s youngest self-made billionaire according to Bloomberg’s Billionaires Index, with an estimated net worth exceeding $1 billion.

Coplan’s journey started early. At just 16 years old, he participated in Ethereum’s 2014 crowdsale when the cryptocurrency traded at $0.30. Today, Ethereum trades around $3,000, making his early investment worth millions. He studied computer science at New York University but left before graduating to pursue his vision for prediction markets full-time.

The platform gained massive attention during the 2024 U.S. presidential election when it correctly predicted Donald Trump’s victory while traditional polls showed different results. Trading volume during that period reached nearly $400 million in a single day following the election.

Wall Street Meets Crypto

In October 2025, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), which owns the New York Stock Exchange, invested up to $2 billion in Polymarket at an $8-9 billion valuation. This investment represented a major milestone, bringing together traditional finance and blockchain technology.

The partnership goes beyond just money. ICE will distribute Polymarket’s prediction data to institutional customers worldwide, providing real-time sentiment indicators on topics relevant to financial markets. The two companies also plan to collaborate on tokenization projects, putting traditional assets into blockchain form.

On November 13, 2025, Coplan rang the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange alongside ICE CEO Jeffrey Sprecher. The ceremonial moment symbolized Polymarket’s entry into mainstream finance and coincided with announcing a multi-year partnership making Polymarket the official prediction market for the UFC and Zuffa Boxing.

Coming Back to America

Polymarket faced a major setback in 2022 when the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) fined the company $1.4 million for operating without proper registration. The platform had to block all U.S. users, forcing it to operate only internationally for three years.

Everything changed in July 2025 when Polymarket purchased QCEX, a CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange, for $112 million. This acquisition gave Polymarket the regulatory approval needed to legally serve American customers again. In September 2025, the CFTC issued a no-action letter effectively clearing the company to operate in the U.S. market.

The platform is currently running a closed beta test for U.S. users, with a full launch expected soon. This return to the American market opens up access to millions of potential new users in the world’s largest prediction market.

Token Launch and Airdrop Plans

Polymarket confirmed plans to launch its native POLY token in 2026. Chief Marketing Officer Matthew Modabber announced on the Degenz Live podcast in October 2025: “There will be a token, there will be an airdrop.”

The company is taking a measured approach to the token launch. Modabber explained that Polymarket wants the token to have “true utility” and “longevity” rather than rushing to market. The platform is prioritizing its U.S. relaunch before shifting focus to the token distribution.

Industry analysts expect the POLY token will play a major role in governance and staking, allowing token holders to vote on platform decisions like market creation, fees, and community initiatives. With Polymarket’s current valuation, the airdrop could be one of the largest in cryptocurrency history.

The platform currently has 1.35 million active traders. While Polymarket hasn’t announced official eligibility criteria, trading volume is expected to be a key factor in determining airdrop allocations.

Fierce Competition in Prediction Markets

Polymarket isn’t alone in the rapidly growing prediction market space. Its main competitor, Kalshi, raised $300 million at a $5 billion valuation in October 2025 from investors including Sequoia Capital and Andreessen Horowitz.

As of mid-November 2025, Kalshi captured approximately 62% of total prediction market volume while Polymarket controlled 37%. Kalshi has the advantage of already operating legally in the U.S. market and has integrated with Robinhood’s trading platform, giving it access to millions of retail investors.

The combined monthly trading volume between both platforms reached $4.5 billion, demonstrating massive growth in the sector. In October 2025 alone, the prediction market industry hit $8.5 billion in total volume, surpassing even the record numbers from the November 2024 presidential election.

Both companies have signed deals with major sports leagues. The National Hockey League became the first professional sports league to sign multi-year licensing agreements with both platforms. Other companies like DraftKings and fantasy sports giant PrizePicks are also entering the space through partnerships with prediction market platforms.

Traditional gambling companies are taking notice. The U.S. sports betting industry generated $13.7 billion in revenue in 2024, and prediction markets are positioning themselves to capture a portion of that massive market.

The Road Ahead

Polymarket’s journey from a bathroom startup to a potential $15 billion company in just four years reflects the explosive growth of blockchain-based prediction markets. The platform has demonstrated that cryptocurrency technology can create new ways for people to forecast real-world events, from elections to sports to financial markets.

The timing of Polymarket’s fundraising is notable. Cryptocurrency exchange Kraken closed an $800 million funding round at a $20 billion valuation on November 18, 2025, before confidentially filing for an IPO the next day. Industry observers suggest Polymarket may be following a similar path toward a public listing.

With backing from the New York Stock Exchange’s parent company, partnerships with major sports leagues, a confirmed token launch, and regulatory approval to operate in the U.S., Polymarket is positioning itself as the bridge between traditional finance and decentralized markets. Whether the company can maintain its momentum against growing competition from Kalshi and traditional gambling companies will determine if prediction markets become a permanent part of the global financial system.