IEA: Dự kiến kích thước thừa cung thị trường dầu mỏ sẽ mở rộng vào năm sau

The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that the global oil surplus will exceed 1 million barrels per day next year, providing the market with the 'much-needed stability'. The latest IEA monthly report shows that the oil surplus is expected to be 1.15 million barrels per day next year, the highest level since the agency first forecast supply and demand levels for 2025 in April this year, an increase of 40,000 barrels per day compared to last month's estimate. The IEA said, 'With supply risks everywhere, a looser balance will provide some much-needed stability to the market, which has been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and recent Middle East turbulence.' If OPEC+ member countries proceed with the production increase plan and start lifting the 'voluntary' production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day from January next year over a period of 12 months, the scale of the surplus estimated by the IEA could be much higher, but this is not guaranteed. The IEA's forecast for oil demand in the next two years is still below 1 million barrels per day, raising this year's demand forecast by 60,000 barrels per day to 920,000 barrels per day, mainly due to higher-than-expected oil consumption in Europe; at the same time, the forecast for next year has been lowered by 10,000 barrels per day to 990,000 barrels per day.