Ethereum now has a core question: once it drops to around 2500, how will the big players choose? This decision will directly influence the market trend over the next three months. If it breaks below 2500, the market will diverge. The most immediate reaction from retail investors is to become bearish on Ethereum, believing we're entering a deep bear market, or even thinking it could drop into the 1-digit range. If that happens, short positions above 3000 could be held onto all the way. The problem is, breaking below 2000 means Ethereum would need a long time to recover, which would attract a large number of retail investors to buy the dip in spot trading, waiting for the bull market to sell above 4000—guaranteed profit. But this directly conflicts with the interests of the big players. They won't let such a situation occur, nor will they simply dump from 3000 down below 2000. They are more likely to create black swan events in the 3500-4000 range, quickly wiping out all retail chips. This trading tactic has a higher success rate. Conversely, if the price rises to 3700 or even higher, retail investors will want to short. But the big players hold the initiative and can suddenly dump the market, dropping from 3700 directly below 2000—something that has happened before in history. This is the most profitable strategy for them. Therefore, my judgment is: Ethereum in the 2000-2300 range is unlikely to appear, and the real bull market is probably only to begin in the second half of January. Also, pay attention to the coordinated movements of other mainstream coins like SOL.

BNB or SOL?

Traditional finance is once again betting on the crypto market. A leading exchange and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) officially announced a partnership on Thursday to jointly launch an upgraded crypto index product. This collaboration updates the original crypto index to the "Leading Exchange-CME Crypto Index," marking a deep involvement of mainstream financial institutions in the digital asset market. The composition of the new index is quite interesting — it includes 7 major cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Solana, Chainlink, Cardano, Avalanche. This is not a random assembly but a selection of core assets validated by the market. A person in charge at a leading exchange revealed the idea: investors are no longer satisfied with single-asset allocations; index investing is the trend. Similar to index funds in traditional finance, this type of product allows ordinary people to gain direct exposure to multiple cryptocurrencies. This is indeed good news for retail investors. Currently, the total number of cryptocurrencies approaches 3 million, making careful selection a nightmare. However, ETF products developed based on this index are different — passive investors can skip the tedious process of analyzing individual assets, set up exposure to 7 major cryptocurrencies with one click, and even beginners can participate smoothly. Industry observers are optimistic about the crypto index product market in 2026. The reason is straightforward: ordinary investors want to allocate small amounts of capital to crypto assets with low barriers, without spending time researching various sectors. The progress of this collaboration between leading exchanges and CME also clearly indicates one thing — institutional players are accelerating their deployment. In fact, large institutions like Franklin Templeton and Grayscale have already launched similar index-based spot products. The entire market is becoming more regulated and mature.