Stable Coin Liquidity — The Underlying Force of Purchasing Power

Stable coins are the "ammunition depot" of the crypto market. As of April 8, the total market capitalization of stable coins reached $315.7 billion, with USDT accounting for 58.3%, USDC for 24.1%, and DAI for 5.2%. But the most noteworthy aspect is the stable coin reserves within exchanges.

Exchange Stable Coin Balances: Glassnode data shows that the total stable coin holdings across exchanges are approximately $41 billion, an 8% increase from last month, approaching the 2025 high. This indicates that the market has a large amount of "dry powder" that could enter buying mode at any time.

Fund Flow Distribution: On-chain tracking reveals that about $3 billion in stable coins moved from personal wallets into exchanges over the past week, with 75% of this being USDT. Meanwhile, USDC experienced a net outflow of about $500 million, possibly related to compliance concerns.

Correlation Between Stable Coins and Bitcoin: Historical backtests show that when exchange stable coin reserves increase by more than 10%, the probability of Bitcoin rising within the next 30 days is 68%. The current 8% increase is close to the trigger threshold. However, it’s important to note that an increase in stable coin reserves is a necessary but not sufficient condition — price catalysts (such as geopolitical easing or continued ETF fund inflows) are also needed.

Special Attention: Tether recently issued an additional $2 billion USDT (authorized but not yet issued). Usually, this "pre-issuance" is to prepare for future market demand. If this batch of USDT enters the market, it could drive a new wave of upward movement.

Risk Warning: If the Middle East conflict escalates, leading to a global shift of funds into USD cash, stable coins may face redemption pressure. Attention should be paid to the de-pegging risks of USDT/USDC in pools like Curve.

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