Tesla (TSLA) or Rivian (RIVN): Baird Top Analyst Sees More Near-Term Pressure in One EV Stock

Electric-vehicle makers Tesla TSLA -5.42% ▼ and Rivian Automotive RIVN +3.08% ▲ reported their latest quarterly updates, and Robert W. Baird sees a clear difference between the two. The firm’s top analyst Ben Kallo kept Outperform ratings on both but trimmed Tesla’s price target, signaling more near-term pressure on the stock.

Easter Sale - 70% Off TipRanks

Forget margin or options. Here’s how the pros trade TSLA

Both companies reported delivery updates, but Baird sees a difference in performance. Tesla’s energy results came in weaker than expected, while Rivian kept its full-year outlook unchanged. For context, Tesla reported 6.3% growth but still fell short of Wall Street expectations. In contrast, Rivian delivered a strong 20% increase and reiterated its 2026 outlook.

Baird Flags Near-Term Pressure on Tesla Stock

Kallo lowered his price target on Tesla to $538 from $548 while maintaining an Outperform rating. The adjustment follows a mixed Q1 update, where deliveries were broadly in line with expectations, while the energy segment stood out as a negative surprise.

Tesla reported energy deployments of 8.8 GWh, falling short of both Baird’s estimate of 13.2 GWh and Street expectations of 14.4 GWh. Kallo noted that while deliveries have become less central in recent investor discussions, energy performance is drawing more attention. Although deployments can vary due to project timing, he believes the miss could weigh on the stock in the near term.

Baird Stays Positive on Rivian Stock

For Rivian, Kallo reiterated an Outperform rating with a $23 price target, keeping his overall outlook unchanged.

Rivian’s Q1 deliveries came in about 4% below consensus estimates. Even so, volumes grew roughly 6% quarter over quarter and about 20% year over year, showing steady progress. The company also reaffirmed its full-year delivery guidance of 62,000 to 67,000 vehicles.

Kallo expects Q1 to mark the low point for the year, with production and deliveries likely to improve as the R2 platform launches in Q2 and ramps through the rest of 2026.

TSLA or RIVN: Which EV Stock Offers Higher Upside, According to Analysts?

Using TipRanks’ Stock Comparison tool, we looked at TSLA and RIVN across several key metrics. Both stocks currently carry a Hold rating from analysts. In terms of share price appreciation, Rivian’s average target of $17.59 suggests about 14.2% upside, slightly higher than Tesla’s $394.36 target, which implies roughly 9.4% upside.

Disclaimer & DisclosureReport an Issue