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Analysis: It is crucial for Bitcoin to gain support at the 65% address holder cost, and chip restructuring may be in progress.
On November 26, on-chain data analyst Murphy published an analysis stating that the Bitcoin CBD Quantiles curve shows that the market's chips are undergoing significant restructuring. CBD Quantiles: a dynamic curve that divides the BTC buying cost by the number of addresses into 1%-100%, used to observe the distribution and migration direction of daily chip costs. Purple line: the 65th percentile cost, meaning that the BTC cost held by 65% of addresses is below this value. The illustration reveals that when BTC falls below $100,000, high-position chips (red line 75th percentile) quickly drop, while low-position chips (purple line) rise simultaneously, indicating that high-position chips are being absorbed by low-position funds—meaning the market is undergoing a “Whipsaw.” The current BTC price finding support at the purple line is crucial, as it signifies that 65% of addresses are still in profit, leaving the market with a final hope. However, it's important to note that this also includes some long-term inactive or “frozen” addresses, such as Satoshi Nakamoto's holdings. Looking back at the last cycle, when the purple line support was breached, Bitcoin entered a long-term downtrend, with new funds being forced to switch hands to lower percentiles as prices fell, leading the market into a deep bear phase. Short-term observation: if the purple line continues to provide support, the chip restructuring may still be ongoing, and the market may have a chance to catch its breath; if the support is lost, a new wave of downward pressure may arrive.