Bitcoin has not experienced a significant pullback for a long time, which is not only due to market inertia but also closely related to its four-year cycle. Historical data shows that the cycle peaks of Bitcoin usually occur in the second year after the Halving event, as seen in 2013, 2017, and 2021. Following this pattern, the next expected peak may occur in 2025.

Although every bull market has people claiming 'the eternal bull market is coming, the four-year cycle has failed', a considerable number of traders will still consider this 'cycle theory' and adjust their investment strategies accordingly.

Interestingly, Bitcoin's four-year cycle is quite similar to the Kitchin cycle in economics. The Kitchin cycle describes the process where businesses produce based on demand forecasts, leading to overcapacity and inventory reduction, which results in a decline in investment and employment; after the inventory is cleared, hiring and investment begin to increase again, with the entire cycle lasting about four years.

The monetary policy of the United States often amplifies or suppresses these economic fluctuations. For example, the large-scale monetary easing policy after the pandemic in 2020 gave rise to an unprecedented bull market; however, by 2022, the Kitchin cycle entered a destocking phase, and at the same time, the United States implemented tightening policies, making the economic situation even more severe.

Currently, Bitcoin may be at the top range of a four-year cycle. From the perspective of the Kitchin cycle, the rising unemployment rate and slowing investment growth indicate that the economy is at the 'top recession inflection point' of destocking, with insufficient economic momentum. At the same time, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is at the turning point from tightening to easing.

However, the expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, increased institutional acceptance of Bitcoin, and enhanced investor confidence in Bitcoin may alleviate the pressures of economic recession and Bitcoin's decline. Even if Bitcoin really peaks, its subsequent trend may lean more towards mild adjustments or fluctuations rather than an extreme bear market.

As for why the next season may be for small cryptocurrencies, there are mainly three reasons: First, if Bitcoin's momentum slows down, some profit-taking funds may flow into other cryptocurrencies with potentially higher returns. Second, when monetary policy becomes more accommodative, investors tend to take on more risk by investing in small cryptocurrencies. Lastly, when Bitcoin is fluctuating at high levels, it often creates the most favorable conditions for the rally of other cryptocurrencies.

Overall, the cryptocurrency market is at a critical turning point, and investors need to closely monitor economic indicators and policy changes to make informed investment decisions.