#美国考虑BTC战略储备方案# The interest rate cut policy has been in effect for over 36 hours, and the market remains relatively stable overall. Although there was a brief fall during Powell's speech, the overall trend still leans towards a rise, but the upward momentum appears slightly insufficient, with multiple attempts to break through the 1178 point level failing to succeed, and there is still a certain gap to the previous high point formed after the 124K fall.

From the market structure analysis, the current market may evolve along two paths:

Path 1: Gradually raise the bottom. If it can effectively break through 1178 and stabilize above 1185, the market may launch another attack towards the 120,000 integer level and further challenge the previous high points.

Path 2: Entering a long-term sideways consolidation, similar to the performance of the gold market from April to August this year. Referencing the characteristics of Bitcoin's trend from March to September this year, it may fluctuate repeatedly in the high area before 124K, and even test the upper resistance of 129K and 132K, forming wide fluctuations at high levels. It is worth noting that although the US stock market has repeatedly reached new highs, it lacks effective adjustments. If the US stock market experiences a pullback, Bitcoin may decline first.

Short-term technical indicators show that the EMA20 moving average on the 4-hour chart has not yet been broken, and the bullish structure remains intact, still allowing for the possibility of an upward breakout. However, the current market clearly exhibits a choppy characteristic: the gains in the correct direction are limited, while there are still opportunities for correction in the wrong direction in the short term. The real risk lies in the market returning to a clear trend; if the judgment is wrong and stop-loss is not executed in time, the losses will far exceed the trial-and-error costs during the current choppy period.

Overall, the market direction still leans towards bullish, but the pace is relatively slow, resembling a battle of patience. In terms of operational strategy, there is no need to rush for a significant breakthrough; it is more important to grasp the rhythm and act according to the trend, particularly being cautious of the directional risks that may arise when future trends accelerate.