The latest Fed dot plot provides important signals for the market regarding the direction of interest rates. Compared to the expectations in June, there has been a subtle change in the rate path after September. The median in the dot plot shows that Fed officials expect there will be two more rate cuts this year, one more than previously anticipated.

In-depth analysis of the dot plot data reveals that 19 Fed officials have differing opinions on the future direction of the Intrerest Rate. Among them, nearly half (9 officials) believe there is room for two more rate cuts this year. Additionally, 2 officials expect one more rate cut opportunity, while 6 take a cautious stance, believing there will be no further rate cuts this year. Notably, there is still 1 official who holds a relatively hawkish position, expecting a possible rate hike once this year.

Particularly noteworthy is that one official has shown a clear dovish tendency, with expectations of at least two rate cuts of 50 basis points or more this year. This view differs significantly from the mainstream expectations and reflects differing judgments within the Fed regarding the economic outlook and inflation pressures.

Overall, this dot plot reflects that the Fed officials' overall assessment of the economic situation is becoming more moderate, but it also shows that there are certain differences within the decision-making body regarding the future policy path. Market participants need to closely monitor subsequent economic data and comments from Fed officials to better grasp the future trends in interest rate changes.