Sister Mu Tou stated that "AI is not a bubble": it is replicating the wealth explosion moment of the internet.

Ark Fund “Wooden Sister” believes that the current wave of AI is not a bubble, but a technological revolution similar to the early days of the Internet in 1995. The core feature of AI is not hype, but an explosion of demand, which will bring huge wealth opportunities over the next decade, driving global real GDP growth to 7% to 8%. This article is based on an article written by Jin Shiji and is collated, compiled and written by ForesightNews. (Synopsis: Wooden Sister Ark Prediction 2030: ChatGPT costs down to one in 10,000!) Compete with Google for supremacy) (Background supplement: Tether is valued at $500 billion to overtake SpaceX and ByteDance, revealing the secret of the stablecoin leader's path to becoming a god) The most dangerous thing in this era is not “buying expensive AI”, but “missing AI”? Ark Fund “Sister Wood” believes that the core feature of AI is not hype, but demand explosion. This is not a bubble, it is the eve of a productivity leap. On November 25, Ark Investment (ARK Invest) held an internal interview program “Fund Focus” (Fund Focus). CEO Cathy Wood (Cathie Wood) and chief futurist Brett Winton (Brett Winton) believe that the current wave of AI is not a bubble, but a technological revolution similar to the early days of the web in 1995, the next decade AI will bring huge wealth opportunities, driving global real GDP growth to 7% to 8%. The Cycle of the AI Bubble: Demand Outstrips Supply and Technology Readiness The central question of the interview is, “Are we in the AI bubble?” Brett Winton first replied that if everyone was asking if it was a bubble, it would hardly be a bubble. He pointed out that bubbles arise from “a lack of demand for the products offered”, which is not currently the case in the market. He provides a detailed supply and demand analysis: there are currently about 1 billion AI chatbot users worldwide, representing just over 15% of the world's smartphone users. He predicts that number could grow to 4 billion to 5 billion by the end of the decade, a five-fold increase in the number of users. At the same time, he believes that the underlying tools used by knowledge workers will become at least 10 times more powerful in the next few years. This means that the ability to deliver to users will be 50 times greater. Brett mentioned that the current revenue of AI-based model companies is about $30 billion, and the potential monetization scale is estimated to be about $1.5 trillion. He concluded that the huge demand and revenue generation is enough to support the AI infrastructure being invested, and the current market conditions are in short supply, and companies have even had to restrict access to their underlying data centers. “Sister Wood” agreed, adding that so many people worried that we were in a hype cycle instead made her feel at ease. She contrasts the current situation with the tech and telecom bubbles. She pointed out that in that bubble, investors were investing in a “dream” because the technology was not ready: cloud computing did not exist until 2006; It wasn't until 2012 that there was the first major breakthrough in AI - deep learning; It wasn't until 2017 that there was a second major breakthrough – the Transformer architecture. She magnifies the difference by using the cost of sequencing a complete human genome as an example: after spending $2.7 billion and consuming 13 years of computing power, the technology is now in place, the seeds planted in the last 25 to 30 years are blossoming, and the AI boom is just beginning. Brett Winton further positions the current cycle as the cyber moment of 1995. He recalled that in early 1995, Cisco's stock price was about $2 per share, Intel's was about $7, and before the bubble ended, they both had 10 to 20 times more upside, and the price that stabilized after the crash was still 3 to 4 times higher than it was then. Valuation and Growth Argument: Overwhelming Revenue Growth and Monetization Speed Regarding market doubts about highly valued and unprofitable companies, “Sister Wood” introduces ARK's investment discipline: assume that stocks in exciting territory, regardless of the current premium, will disappear or be significantly compressed over the next five years. Therefore, analysts must be convinced that the revenue growth and profit margin expansion that these companies can achieve will outweigh the compression of valuations. She cites Palantir as an example, saying that its U.S. commercial revenue growth of 123 percent was not even anticipated by their relatives who used “Leyter's Law” ( Moore's Law ) to understand the aggressive expectations of falling costs and scale. She agrees with Palantir CEO Alex Karp that business transformation is hard work that takes time to reconfigure, transform, disrupt organizations, but once achieved, the results will be amazing. Brett Winton emphasized the speed at which AI can be monetized. He noted that the current weekly active users are now at 1 billion and monetizing are coming just as quickly, which is probably the fastest time any business aggregate can reach $30 billion in recurring revenue. Using OpenAI as an example, he noted that it expects annualized revenue to reach about $20 billion by the end of this year, $40 billion to $50 billion next year, and $100 billion annualized revenue by 2027. He calculates that if the IPO valuation is 1 trillion, then investors pay 10 times the price-to-sales ratio, which is even lower than the 25 times ( for some publicly traded software companies ) such as Figma, so it “actually looks like a very healthy and possibly even undervalued IPO conjecture.” Regarding the strategic differences between OpenAI and Anthropic, “Sister Wood” pointed out that OpenAI is facing the consumer world, with 800 million users ( of which about 40 million paying users ), its monetization path is longer, and it will use advertising models and commercial leverage; Anthropic, on the other hand, is more B2B and focuses on developing programming capabilities. She singled out Anthropic's partnership with 10x Genomics, noting that healthcare may be AI's deepest application. The Biggest Opportunity: A Revolution Driven by Embodied Intelligence and Technology Convergence “Sister Wood” emphasizes that people don't think people realize what kind of technological revolution we are in. She believes that this is the biggest revolution in history, and it is necessary to go back to the late 19th and early 20th centuries to see this level of technological revolution ( internal combustion engines, telephones, and electric ). Today we have five innovation platforms: AI ( the biggest catalyst ), robotics, energy storage, blockchain technology, and multi-omics sequencing. Among them, the greatest opportunity lies in embodied wisdom (Embodied AI). “Sister Wood” noted that they expect Robotaxi to ( self-driving taxis ) which currently generate less than $1 billion in revenue globally, but that scale will expand to $8 to $10 trillion in the next 5 to 10 years. Brett Winton also emphasized that humanoid robots are a bigger opportunity than almost anything. Furthermore, in the software stack, Brett argues that the platform-as-a-service (PaaS) layer is almost as large as the base model layer, and Palantir is usurping the role of the SaaS player by overlaying software on top of it. Throw…