Gate Daily (October 29): Polymarket plans to restart U.S. operations in November; Trump enters the encryption prediction market.

Bitcoin (BTC) has significantly pulled back its gains, reporting around $112,410 on October 29. Polymarket plans to relaunch the U.S. market in November, and Trump Media & Technology Group announced its entry into the encryption prediction market. Circle launched the Arc public Testnet, with 100 traditional giants including BlackRock and Goldman Sachs participating.

Macroeconomic Events & Coin Circle Hotspots

1. According to reports, the prediction platform Polymarket plans to launch trading services in the United States within a few weeks. According to Bloomberg on Tuesday, citing informed sources, Polymarket plans to initially launch limited trading for U.S. residents by the end of November, focusing on sports betting. About two months ago, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued a no-action letter to Polymarket, which had acquired a cryptocurrency derivatives exchange and clearinghouse. The company's CEO Shayne Coplan stated that this move lays the foundation for the company to “go live in the U.S.” A report in September indicated that if Polymarket re-enters the U.S. market, the company's valuation could reach as high as $10 billion. As of June, the prediction platform was valued at around $1 billion after completing a round of $200 million in funding.

2. Circle, the world's second-largest stablecoin issuer, has launched the public Testnet for Arc, which is its open Layer 1 blockchain network aimed at bringing global financial infrastructure on-chain. Circle refers to this release as the “Internet Economic Operating System.” According to the announcement released on Tuesday, over 100 banks, large companies in capital markets and fintech are participating, including BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, Visa, Mastercard, and State Street. Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire stated, “With the launch of the Arc public Testnet, we are seeing remarkable early development momentum, with leading companies, protocols, and projects beginning to build and test. These companies collectively cover billions of users, transferring, trading, and custodial managing trillions of dollars in assets and payments.”

3. Trump-supported Truth Social partners with exchanges to enter the prediction market. Truth Social, part of Trump Media & Technology Group, is entering the prediction market space through exclusive partnerships with exchanges, launching “Truth Predict”. The new feature will allow Truth Social users to trade contracts on political, market, sports, and other events through CDNA-compliant federal standard infrastructure. Truth Predict will also integrate with Cronos tokens, enabling users to convert “Truth gems” into CRO to purchase prediction contracts.

News Update

1. The L1 transaction fee landscape has changed: Hyperliquid's share has risen to 40%, while Solana has dropped to only 9%.

2. WLFI: CEX partners will distribute 8.4 million WLFI to adopters of the USD1 points program.

3. Australia's ASIC will implement broader regulation in the encryption sector based on the latest guidelines.

4. Early Bitcoin investor Owen Gunden deposited 1447.56 BTC into CEX, worth 163 million USD.

5. A certain whale sold the ETH that was bought at the bottom of 1582 USD half a year ago, making a profit of 14.43 million USD.

6. MegaETH public sale has currently raised 628 million USD, with an oversubscription of 12.5 times.

7. The Bitcoin financial company Sequans is suspected of transferring 970 BTC to a CEX deposit address.

8. “100% Win Rate Whale” has completely closed its BTC long position, earning a profit of 1.4 million dollars.

9. Asset tokenization company Securitize will go public through a $1.25 billion SPAC deal.

10. Tether proves that the XAUT token is fully backed by physical gold, with a market capitalization exceeding 2 billion dollars.

11. Western Union plans to launch the USDPT stablecoin built on the Solana blockchain in 2026.

Market Trend

1. Latest news on Bitcoin: $BTC has significantly pulled back its gains, currently reported at around 112,410 USD, with a liquidation of 127 million USD in the past 24 hours, mainly from long positions;

2. On October 29, the three major U.S. stock indices reached new closing highs again, with NVIDIA surging and Microsoft also experiencing a significant increase, as investors held an optimistic view on corporate profits ahead of the tech giants' earnings reports. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 161.78 points, an increase of 0.3%, to 47,706.37 points; the S&P 500 index rose by 15.73 points, an increase of 0.2%, to 6,890.89 points; and the Nasdaq Composite index rose by 190.04 points, an increase of 0.8%, to 23,827.49 points. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 0.4% to 7,194.71 points, also reaching a historical high.

(Source: Gate)

3. In the Gate BTC/USDT liquidation map, based on the current 112,550.00 USDT, if it drops to around 111,874 USD, the total liquidation amount for long positions exceeds 228 million USD; if it rises to around 114,335 USD, the total liquidation amount for short positions exceeds 493 million USD. The liquidation amount for shorts is significantly higher than for longs, so it is recommended to reasonably control the leverage ratio to avoid triggering large-scale liquidations during market fluctuations.

(Source: Coinglass)

4. In the past 24 hours, BTC spot inflow was 2.36 billion USD, outflow was 2.33 billion USD, with a net inflow of 30 million USD.

(Source: Coinglass)

5. In the past 24 hours, contracts such as $BCH, $OL, $TRUMP, $GIGGLE, and $H have seen a net outflow, indicating trading opportunities.

X KOL Selected Insights

Phyrex Ni (@Phyrex_Ni): “Today's assignment is a bit challenging, mainly due to the drop in BTC this morning. I'll share my personal view; I haven't noticed any bearish information. Comparing with the Nasdaq and S&P, the drop in Bitcoin was ahead of the curve. At 3:10, when the first drop occurred, the performance of the U.S. stock market was still decent, but by 3:34, the second drop coincided with the U.S. stock market.”

“Even the drop in Nasdaq or S&P has no reason; if there must be one, it is very likely that Nvidia is taking advantage of the situation. The recent continuous good news has already caused an exaggerated rise in Nvidia. I have seen many comments in the English-speaking community suggesting selling encryption and other stocks to buy Nvidia. Of course, this may not be the real reason for the decline, just what I have observed. I have reviewed a lot of information and data over a long time and found no clear information that could lead to a drop, so I think it cannot be ruled out that it is the result of some investors shifting positions. Moreover, the overall trend of the US stock market is still quite good, and the correlation between Bitcoin and tech stocks has also been continuously validated, so I personally think the issue is not significant.”

“Looking back at the data of Bitcoin, today's turnover rate is almost the same as Monday's. Even though BTC's price has seen some pullback, it has not triggered a significant panic sentiment, after all, there hasn't been any actual negative information. Therefore, I am still holding onto the long position I opened at $106,000, as the $116,000 level has been broken several times. However, according to URPD's data, the current chip structure is very stable. Apart from the current price, it is almost a horizontal line, indicating that investor sentiment is stable, and there hasn't been much chip change due to price fluctuations. This week's focus remains on the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting.”

Today's Preview

1. The overnight target interest rate in Canada was 2.50%.

2. U.S. September NAR seasonally adjusted existing home sales index (month-on-month), previous value was 4.0%.

3. The change in US EIA crude oil inventories (in ten thousand barrels) (as of 1024) was -96.1, with a previous value of -96.1.

4. President Trump visits South Korea

5. The Bank of Canada announces interest rate decision and monetary policy report.

6. Hong Kong markets closed for the Chung Yeung Festival holiday.