Cardano Price Prediction: Whales Continue to Accumulate, Can ADA Break Through the Key Resistance Zone of $0.74?

The recent market performance of Cardano (ADA) has attracted attention, with on-chain data showing that whale wallets holding over 100,000 ADA have been continuously accumulating over the past six weeks. However, the short-term price movement is still constrained by the resistance in the supply zone of $0.7-$0.737. This article will analyze the future trend of ADA from multiple dimensions, including supply distribution, technical indicators, and liquidation heat maps, to provide investors with key price level references and trading strategy suggestions.

Whale Accumulation and Divergence from Short-term Market Sentiment

On-chain supply distribution reveals accumulation trend

According to on-chain data monitoring from Cardano, wallets holding more than 100,000 ADA have continuously increased their holdings over the past six weeks, and this trend is clearly reflected in the supply distribution chart. The accumulation behavior of Whale wallets is typically viewed as a long-term bullish signal, indicating that large funds have confidence in the project's fundamentals.

However, this positive signal stands in stark contrast to the short-term market performance:

• ADA price has rebounded 11.4% in four days, rising from a low of $0.61 to $0.694.
• A pullback of 4% in the following 24 hours indicates that short-term selling pressure still exists.
• Bitcoin's hesitation at the mid-term resistance level of $116,000 is dragging down the overall market.

Short-term cautious sentiment reflected in derivatives market data

• Open Interest: Decreased in the last 24 hours, indicating that speculators are reducing their short-term bets on ADA.
• Spot CVD: Slightly increased, reflecting weak spot demand.
• Funding Rate: Although remaining positive, it has decreased over the past 24 hours, indicating weakened demand for long leverage.

Technical Analysis: Key Price Levels and Market Structure

Market structure contradictions across multiple time frames

From a technical analysis perspective, Cardano presents a contradictory market structure:

(Source: TradingView)

• Weekly Level: Maintain overall bullish structure (white frame)
• Daily Level: Shows a short-term bearish structure (yellow frame) under a larger bullish context.

This contradiction highlights the importance of the $0.61 support level, which has been effectively defended to this day, becoming a key cornerstone for the bulls' rebound.

resistance zone and liquidity analysis

Technical analysis identifies a significant supply zone (red box) in the range of 0.7-0.737 USD, and this resistance must be converted into support to initiate a sustainable rebound. Before that, swing traders should maintain a cautious bearish attitude.

The Money Flow Index continues to show weak bearish signals, indicating that ADA currently lacks both upward momentum and sufficient buying pressure to drive the price higher.

Key Insights Provided by the Liquidation Heatmap

potential price magnet zone

The liquidation heatmap analysis shows that ADA may test the $0.745 level upward in the coming days. Although the strength of this magnetic zone is better than the $0.64 or $0.58 zones, it is relatively far away due to the price action in the last 24 hours.

Liquidity Cluster and Reversal Risk

Technical analysis indicates that the $0.74 supply zone is highly consistent with the liquidity cluster shown in the liquidation heatmap. This means that even if Cardano rebounds to $0.75 in the coming days, traders should be wary of a potential bearish reversal.

Comprehensive Evaluation of Market Sentiment and On-chain Data

Divergence between short-term and long-term signals

The current market shows a clear multi-timeframe signal divergence:

• Long-term positive factors: Whales continue to accumulate, and large funds are optimistic about the project's prospects.
• Short-term challenges: The derivatives market is cautious, with strong technical resistance and uncertain Bitcoin price movement.

Key Thresholds and Breakthrough Conditions

To initiate a genuine upward trend for ADA, the following conditions must be met:

1. Successful Breakthrough: Transforming the 0.7-0.737 USD supply zone into a support zone
2. Momentum Confirmation: The Money Flow Index strengthens, indicating sustained buying pressure.
3. Market Coordination: Bitcoin breaks through the $116,000 resistance, creating a favorable environment for altcoins.
4. Derivatives Recovery: Open interest and funding rates have risen simultaneously.

Trading Strategies and Risk Management

Strategy Recommendations for Different Investment Styles

• Short-term traders: Can operate in the range of $0.61 to $0.69 for swing trading, with strict stop-loss settings.
• Long-term investors: follow the defense situation at the key support of 0.61 USD, and build positions in batches on dips.
• Breakout Trader: Wait for a clear breakout above $0.74 and then follow up, targeting $0.78-0.82.

Risk Warning and Key Observations

1. Downside risk: If the support at 0.61 USD is lost, it may further probe the 0.58-0.55 USD area.
2. Liquidity Risk: While the accumulation by whales is positive, a lack of short-term liquidity may amplify volatility.
3. Systemic Risk: The price movement of Bitcoin remains a key variable, and its direction should be closely followed.

Conclusion

Cardano is currently at a crossroads of short-term caution and long-term optimism. The continuous accumulation behavior of Whales lays a solid foundation for the medium to long-term price movement, but short-term technical indicator resistance and market sentiment remain obstacles that need to be overcome.

For investors, the defense of the support level at $0.61 and the resistance level at $0.74 will be key to determining the subsequent price movement. If it can successfully break through $0.74 and hold, ADA is expected to start a new round of upward trend; conversely, if it loses the $0.61 support, it may require a longer period of consolidation.

In the current market environment, maintaining patience, strict risk management, and closely following the breakthroughs of on-chain data and key technical price levels will be a wise move to cope with market uncertainties.