The United States signs Australia rare earth supply "to counter China," Trump laughs: there are so many key minerals that they are inexhaustible.

Trump and Ebanis signed a rare earth supply agreement at the White House, investing up to $3 billion to cut off dependence on China, and the global supply chain was reshuffled. (Synopsis: Wall Street Journal warns: The United States from sports to AI “gambling addiction bubble”, Trump is the culprit) (Background supplement: New York Times: The Trump family's “dirtiest” currency circle amassing money is worse than Watergate) The balcony of the White House in Washington is brightly lit, and yesterday (20) US time evening, US President Trump and Australian Prime Minister Ebanis shook hands and signed a long-term framework agreement for rare earths and key minerals, declaring that the two countries will break away from dependence on Chinese supplies in the high-tech and defense industries. This agreement not only reshapes the bilateral relationship between the United States and Australia, but also leaves a clear mark on the global geopolitical and technology supply chain. The full name of the agreement, the full name of the “U.S.-Australia Framework Agreement on Supply Assurance for Mining and Processing of Critical Minerals and Rare Earths,” will be more than $1 billion over six months, totaling at least $2 billion, capped at $3 billion, for mining, refining and processing facilities in Australia, according to a White House press release and a statement from the Prime Minister's Office. Trump emphasized at the signing ceremony: “In about a year, we will have so many critical minerals and rare earths that you don't know what to do with them.” Ebanis added that the agreement is not just a capital injection, but a complete set of policies covering financial guarantees, loans, equity investments and simplified approvals. Investment scale and supply chain restructuring The funds will be channelled into a number of key projects: the U.S. Department of Defense provides $200 million to the Alcoa-Sojitz gallium recycling program, which aims to produce 10% of the world's gallium; Another $100 million is invested in the Arafura Nolans rare earth project, which aims to reach 5% of global rare earth production. Australia has the world's fourth-largest rare earth reserves and is home to Lynas Rare Earths Ltd., the only heavy rare earth producer outside China. “This is the most significant bilateral mineral cooperation between two major Western countries, and shows that the United States is seeking the right partner, not alone,” described by Gresling Baskaran, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), as “This is the most significant bilateral mineral cooperation between two major Western countries, and shows that the United States is seeking the right partner, not going it alone.” According to a report by Time Magazine on the 20th, the agreement also plans to hold a ministerial-level investment meeting within 180 days to provide further financing paths for mining and metal processing. In addition to rare earths, the two sides also negotiated the procurement of submarines, underwater drones and Apache helicopters, demonstrating the simultaneous deepening of the defense level. China's monopoly challenged, market responds immediately China expanded export restrictions on gallium, germanium, antimony and other materials earlier this year, once again highlighting the single point of risk in the global rare earth supply chain. The U.S.-Australia deal is seen as a positive response, directly challenging China's share of more than 20 percent of exports in this sector. After the announcement of the agreement, Australia-related stocks have moved strongly: Lynas has gained more than 150% in the past 12 months, and others such as Arafura and Iluka have also closed higher. Market participants pointed out that the US-Australia cooperation provides long-term visibility of price and demand, making investors willing to plan ahead. The agreement also introduces a “price bottom line” mechanism to offset the impact of China's low-price dumping and real-time control of suspicious trade flows through bilateral regulatory information sharing. For manufacturers, if the diversification of rare earth supply is implemented, the long-term cost fluctuations of products such as electric vehicle motors, wind turbines and precision guided weapons are expected to ease. A long-term test of opportunity and risk While the agreement offers a viable path for Western countries to reduce risk, the challenges remain clear. First, the establishment of a complete mining-to-processing chain can take several years, and it is necessary to overcome the promotion of environmental impact assessment and local communities. Second, China may further tighten exports or counteract with price wars, pushing up global rare earth price volatility in the short term. In addition, Australia is also trying to repair economic and trade relations with Beijing at the same time, and the diplomatic balance test continues. At a time of growing geopolitical division, the rare earth agreement is seen as an important piece of the puzzle for Washington's “de-risking” strategy. In the next few years, if funds, technology and policies can be put in place, the United States and Australia may have the opportunity to shape a resilient critical mineral network; Conversely, if any link stalls, it may still repeat the mistake of over-reliance on a single source in the past. Although the agreement has sounded the opening gong, the real competition is about to appear. The agreement was finally written by Trump and Ebanis, and the stars outside the White House were reflected on the signature ink. For the rare earth market, this is a long race to rerank, not a short sprint; For global supply chains, a new geopolitical order may have quietly begun. 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